Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, who currently CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, is convinced that Ukraine can become a member of the alliance even with temporarily occupied territories.

He expressed this opinion in an exclusive interview with Interfax-Ukraine.

Noting that there is "growing realization that the war can only end with NATO membership for Ukraine," Daalder said: "There's no alternative. The dilemma, and this is what I had been talking about, the dilemma is: if you link membership to the end of the war which many would like to do, and frankly, President Zelenskyy has said this, you are giving Russia that incentive to continue the war. But there is now a greater understanding that the actuality of NATO membership may change the nature of the conflict moving it from a military to a political conflict. I have not talked to the president (Biden) but my assessment from what he has said and from people who have talked to him is that he's come to the realization that there is a hope that the counteroffensive will be strategically successful and at that point that there is a prospect for moving more rapidly to bringing Ukraine into NATO or at least an invitation. That's kind of the latest thinking that I have, that I've also shared with others in the White House. They're not necessarily supporting this but they're aware, and this is very much an active conversation that's been going on."

However, the former ambassador answered negatively to the question that we are talking about a frozen conflict. "We are talking about a conflict that is not going to be resolved militarily. And that is the better analogy actually maybe Japan: the United States has a bilateral Article 5 agreement with Japan that does not extend to the northern territories which are occupied by Russia since the end of the Second World War. The treaty explicitly limits Article 5 to the 'territories administered by Japan.' Germany is another example [in 1955, the FRG became a member of NATO, while the GDR was part of the socialist camp]. Think about the Baltic states being incorporated into the Soviet Union for 50 years. The assumption is that you actually are very unlikely to be able to achieve complete liberation of all Ukrainian territory back to the 1991 borders militarily without a direct military intervention by countries that are not willing to do so which is all of NATO," he said.

Daarder also believes that in the course of the counteroffensive, "Ukraine still has a prospect for Ukraine to achieve in this counteroffensive sufficient gains to hold at risk the land bridge to Crimea which ultimately is the strategic goal, plus to liberate the Zaporizhia power plant which I also think is possible." " That's not the same as going back to the borders of 2022, but it is the same in terms of its strategic impact. It means that Crimea can only be re-supplied through the Kerch bridge which in itself is vulnerable and will continue to be vulnerable. I still think that's a strategic goal that can only be achieved militarily, and if it isn't achieved in this counteroffensive the real question becomes is there another way at another time later on in which that goal would be achieved. But I don't think you're going to see the liberation of Mariupol which of course you had before. But you might get to the sea of Azov and you might be able to cut down the road and rail link," the former ambassador said.

According to him, if these goals are achieved, "it makes sense to start a discussion with the Ukrainian government about its aims, and the next steps." " Ukraine has a choice. It can continue to fight and hope that it can liberate all territory while keeping the rest, the entire country on a war footing not being able to provide for its own people, or if the Russians can be persuaded which is really big, to localize the conflict, that large parts of the more productive of Ukraine could become be reconstructed and prepare for its integration into the West both militarily and security terms and political economically… I want to use NATO membership to incentivize Ukraine to focus on its future and see if it can address the final elements of the return of its territory politically rather than militarily but as a full member of NATO and as a full member of the European Union," Daalder said.

Daalder is a European security specialist who served on the U.S. National Security Council during the administration of President Bill Clinton and was one of President Barack Obama's foreign policy advisers during his 2008 presidential campaign.