ICU predicts slow in Ukraine's economic growth to 2.3% in 2019
ICU Group has revised downwards the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.3%, Corporate Research Division Head at ICU Oleksandr Martynenko has said.
"We have a forecast of GDP growth for this year – 2.3%... Investment demand is quite strongly reduced this year due to the factor of elections and the uncertainty of the political situation," he said, presenting the group's quarterly macroeconomic report in Kyiv on Friday.
According to the forecast, in the absence of shocks, the hryvnia will continue its gradual weakening to UAH 28.50-29.00/$1 by the end of 2019.
However, the current exchange rate should stabilize in the near future, which is facilitated by the entry of nonresidents into government bonds. However, in the middle of summer, the rate is expected to rise to UAH 27.30-27.70/$1.
Inflation, along with a slowdown in economic growth, would also slow down to 8% in 2019, according to the macroeconomic forecast of the group. The authorities' commitment to the same monetary and fiscal policy will further slow down inflation, according to the document.
The current account deficit remains close to last year's level – 3.3% of GDP compared to 3.8% of GDP in 2018. The foreign trade deficit will slightly widen due to the negative effect of lower prices for mining and smelting products. Private money transfers will continue to grow, but at a lower rate.
"The foreign trade deficit remains at last year's level. There are risks in the export of metallurgical goods, but there is hope for an improvement in the situation with agricultural exports. The effect of Russian sanctions is mitigated by lower oil prices," Martynenko said.