Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement, besides advanced to within 2.5km directly east of it, according to the analytical review of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia region on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv,” the report reads.

It is reported that Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.

“Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5km directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions,” the ISW notes.

According to analysts, Russian sources disagree on the scale of the attack and the number of casualties on the part of the Ukrainian forces.

“Geolocated footage from July 27 shows two Ukrainian Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and a T-72 tank either disabled or abandoned about 2.5km due east of Robotyne, which is a point that is about 2.5km south of the current frontline,” the report reads.

It is noted that geolocated point is beyond the forward-most pre-prepared Russian defensive fortifications in this area, which in turn indicates that, “that Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate and drive through tactically challenging defensive positions.”

The analysts believe that the defensive lines that run further south of Robotyne are likely less well-manned than these forward-most positions, considering that Russian forces have likely had to commit a significant portion of available forces to man the first line of defensive positions that are north and east of Robotyne.

“Russian milbloggers and unnamed Pentagon officials additionally noted that the Ukrainian units that participated in the July 26 attack are reserves that belong to older and more established Ukrainian brigades,” the report reads.

The ISW believes that “the introduction of fresh Ukrainian reserves to the effort, together with the geometry of Russian defensive lines and the likely degraded overall state of Russian forces in this area, may allow Ukraine to begin pursuing more successful advances south of Orikhiv in the coming weeks.”

Western and Ukrainian officials suggested that the attacks towards Robotyne mark an inflection in Ukraine’s counteroffensive effort.

In particular, The New York Times reported on July 27, citing two anonymous Pentagon officials, that the “main thrust” of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun in earnest.

Nevertheless, according to western experts, today’s actions around Robotyne are likely the start of any “main thrust” Ukrainian forces might be launching, if the US officials are correct, rather than the sum of such a thrust.