17:07 07.09.2022

Turning point in war may come when AFU receives long-range weapons – Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky

4 min read
Turning point in war may come when AFU receives long-range weapons – Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky

A turning point in the war may come when the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive long-range weapons, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, member of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhny and First Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodsky.

"We are talking, of course, about the supply by Ukrainian partners for the Armed Forces of Ukraine of weapons systems or certain types of ammunition with the appropriate range. This refers not only and not so much to certain items, such as, for example, the MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A missile for the Himars MLRS. A comprehensive approach should be taken to re-equip the artillery, missile forces, tactical aviation and naval forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of their power," Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky wrote in an article for Ukrinform on Wednesday.

In their opinion, the discussion should be about creating or building up capabilities, and not solely about the amount of weapons and equipment for the brigades planned for re-equipment.

Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky draw attention to the fact that the maximum reach of weapons for the Russian Armed Forces is up to 2,000 kilometers, taking into account the flight range of air-launched cruise missiles, and for the Ukrainian Armed Forces it is actually limited to 100 kilometers by the range of missiles and the depth of the launch positions of obsolete short-range ballistic missile system. They are convinced that it is quite possible to counter the enemy with their ability to act in a similar way and at a similar range.

The AFU confirmed the infliction of a number of missile strikes on airfields in Crimea.

"A convincing example of the correctness of this approach this year is the successful efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to physically transfer hostilities to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. We are talking about a series of successful missile strikes on the enemy's Crimean air bases, primarily on the Saki airfield. The task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for 2023 year – to make these feelings more acute, natural and quite tangible for the Russians and in other occupied territories, despite the considerable distance to the targets," Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky said.

They believe that Russia's war against Ukraine will continue in 2023, it is possible that Russia will return to the plan to capture Kyiv. Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky consider in detail how the aggressor can see his goal further.

"Some operational prospects for the enemy are visible in Izium and Bakhmut directions. The probable ultimate goal of such actions may be considered access to the administrative border of Donetsk region," they said.

According to them, the prospect of advancing in Zaporizhia direction may look even more attractive to the enemy.

"It ensures further actions to the north and the creation of a direct threat to the capture of Zaporizhia and Dniper, which in turn will lead to the loss of control by the Ukrainian side over a significant part of the Left-Bank Ukraine. A return to the plan to capture Kyiv and the threat of a re-deployment of hostilities from territory of the Republic of Belarus," according to the article.

Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky said that further advancement in Pivdennobuzk direction along the operational bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper River opens up the most opportunities.

"Success in the South, provided it is used quickly and correctly, can have a double effect. On the one hand, the prospects for capturing Mykolaiv and Odesa are quite real," they said.

Zaluzhny and Zabrodsky said the only way to fundamentally change the strategic situation is to launch several successive, and ideally, simultaneous counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the 2023 campaign.