Turchynov doesn't rule out Russia's full-scale military aggression against Ukraine
The Kremlin may choose to follow two main scenarios regarding Ukraine, one of which involves full-scale military aggression, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov has said.
For instance, Turchynov noted that despite the Kremlin's strategic intention to put the Ukrainian state under control, the situation may develop along these two main scenarios, he wrote in an article titled "The National Security of Ukraine: Challenges and Priorities," published in the Holos Ukrainy parliamentary newspaper on Wednesday.
The first scenario, he said, is the military one. "[This is] full-scale military aggression, which is now the most problematic and dangerous for the Kremlin itself, but which the Armed Forces of Russia are getting ready hard for," Turchynov wrote.
The second scenario is hybrid warfare, which is the most probable one, according to Turchynov. "This scenario assumes further low-intensity fighting in Donbas, which does not exclude the possibility of local offensive operations by the Russian regular and irregular units, as well as subversive activities in the rest of Ukraine. At the same time, the Russians deliberately and systematically violate the Minsk agreements, constantly shelling the positions of our troops, in particular, using the heavy weapons that are prohibited by these agreements," Turchynov said.
He stressed that the long-term nature of the Russian threat against the background of sustainable aggravation of instability in Europe and the rest of the world forms an external security environment around Ukraine and determines the highest priority of Ukraine's national security policy.
"Only successful and consistent policy, which is based on the most effective use of our own limited human, financial, material, technical and information resources along with steady progress towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration, together with comprehensive development of cooperation with the strategic partners, including in the military-technical field, will help to protect the interests of Ukraine and create a synergy effect of national unity and international cooperation," Turchynov said.
