The incident in international airspace over the Black Sea, where two Russian Su-27 aircraft shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone, will not lead to a direct conflict between the United States and the Russian Federation, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for March 14.

“The incident will not cause an escalation to direct conflict between Russia and the US. Russian forces have used coercive signaling against US and allied flights and naval vessels for decades in multiple theaters without triggering conflict. The US and Russian presidents retain full freedom to choose how to respond to such incidents, and there is nothing automatic about escalation in such situations,” the message reads.

“Given President Joe Biden’s repeated commitments to avoid committing US forces to direct conflict with Russia and the Kremlin’s clear and repeatedly demonstrated reluctance to get into a war with NATO, there is no reason for incidents such as these to cause dangerous escalations,” the analysts note.

As reported, on Tuesday, the European Command of the US Armed Forces reported that the American MQ-9 Reaper drone fell into the Black Sea after it was hit by a Russian Su-27 fighter.