11:32 27.05.2022

War with Russia dragging on, may continue until year end – Defence Intelligence Agency

3 min read
War with Russia dragging on, may continue until year end – Defence Intelligence Agency

Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to abandon his plans to seize Ukraine, so it is possible that active hostilities will drag on until the end of the year, Vadym Skybytsky, a representative of the Defence Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, has said.

"This war will drag on. How long the active phase will be delayed – whether it will be September, or it will be October, or it will be until the end of the year - it depends on our resistance, on the state of our defense forces and on the assistance that is being provided to us," Skybytsky said in an interview with Crimea.Realities.

According to him, various circles tried to convince Putin not to start a war, but it failed. "September 11 is a single voting day in Russia. The possibility of holding a referendum or other events in the occupied territories is tied to this date. October 7 is Putin's birthday, he is 70 years old, and everyone will say that the military will want to give him a gift. By the end of the year, it will be cold in winter, and they say that Ukraine will go for the negotiation process... The war that he [Putin] wants to wage will be long-term. This is a person who does not want to give up his position," the representative of the Agency added.

According to him, the Russian Federation plans to stay in the south of Ukraine for a long time and this is evidenced by the deployment of a powerful group in the occupied territories. "Since the beginning of May, the occupation forces have begun to strengthen their defenses. Appropriate engineering structures are being prepared, not even one or two, but the third line of defense is being built," he said.

Also, intelligence records that the Russian army is bypassing roads and bridges in the occupied territories in order to take up defense and prevent counter-offensive actions of the Ukrainian army. And such actions will definitely happen, they assure in intelligence.

According to the Intelligence Agency, the Russian Federation has changed the nature of the use of precision weapons, because its reserves are running out, and there is no capacity for its rapid production. "About 60% of the reserves have already been used, for some types even more – 70%," Skybytsky said.

Therefore, in the Russian Federation, according to him, Soviet-made missiles were removed from storage. "If we talk about ballistic missiles, this is the ‘Point U’, an old type of Soviet-era weapons. The last Tochka U complex was decommissioned in 2018... If we talk about the X-22 cruise missile, it is an old Soviet rocket, it is liquid-fuel, not solid-fuel, as modern cruise missiles are now. Preparation is needed to refuel such a missile, it has a shorter range of destruction, not such accuracy," the representative of the Agency said.

The intelligence service also reported that the Russian Federation has changed the tactics of using high–precision weapons: if two or four missiles were used on the object earlier, now they clearly choose a target and shoot missiles of different formats - from 8 to 12 missiles.

According to Skybytsky, the actions of the Ukrainian army and the destruction of the cruiser Moscow forced the Russian Federation to limit the activities of the Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea: warships are no longer suitable for a close distance to the Ukrainian shores. Now the ship's composition is being used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles on Ukrainian territory and continues to block Ukrainian ports.

 

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