13:10 19.06.2019

Five parties have real chances to enter parliament – poll

3 min read
Five parties have real chances to enter parliament – poll

If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, Servant of the People, Opposition Platform - For Life, Batkivshchyna and European Solidarity parties would pass the five-percent barrier for entering parliament, while Holos party has good chances. These are the results of a rolling survey conducted by the Social Monitoring Center and the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research.

According to the data released at a press conference in the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Tuesday, 47.5% of respondents among those who are determined and will vote ready to support the Servant of the People party, the Opposition Platform - For Life - 11%, Batkivshchyna - 8.7%, European Solidarity - 8.3% of respondents, and Holos - 5.3%.

Taking into account the sampling error, there is also a chance to overcome the 5% passing barrier in the Strength and Honor party with the support of 3.9% of the votes, respectively.

At the same time, compared with the data for the previous period, the rating of Servant of the People and Holos has grown, while the rating of other leading parties has slightly decreased.

If the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, then 44.5% of those polled would definitely vote, and 38.8% would rather vote. Some 6.1% will definitely not vote and another 6% will rather not vote.

Among all respondents surveyed, 40.4% are ready to vote for the Servant of the People, for the Opposition Platform - For Life - 9.3%, Batkivshchyna - 7.5%, European Solidarity - 7.1%, and Holos - 4.5%, Strength and Honor - 3.3%, and Civil Position - 2.4%.

Rolling study provides for a constituent survey and periodic (wave) updates of the survey database by replacing part of the questionnaires with newer ones. Rolling wave is the time period for collecting new data for updating the database. Each wave is realized on the same sample of respondents, while the respondents themselves are new in the sample each time. The sample of each wave of rolling is a smaller copy of the total sample.

During the constituent poll on May 15-19, 2,121 respondents over 18 years old from 24 regions and Kyiv were surveyed. The sample is representative by sex, age and type of population centers. Sampling error is 1.2-2.2%.

During the first wave of rolling on May 20-23, 250 questionnaires were replaced. During the second wave of May 24-31, 250 questionnaires were replaced. During the third wave of June 1-7 - 1000 profiles. During the fourth wave, on June 8-14, there were 1,000 questionnaires.

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