IMF expects reduction of Ukraine's state debt to GDP ratio to 62% in 2019
The ratio of Ukraine's total state debt to gross domestic product (GDP) after falling from 71.9% of GDP in 2017 to 63.9% in 2018 will decrease to 62% by the end of this year, this forecast is contained in the updated World Economic Outlook (WEO), promulgated by the International Monetary Fund.
According to the report, this figure will continue to decline in the following years: in 2020 to 57.9%, in 2021 to 53.8% of GDP, in 2022 to 49.8% of GDP, in 2023 to 46.2%, and in 2024 to 43.7%.
At the same time, in absolute terms, the aggregate national debt will continue to grow, according to IMF experts. According to their estimates, by the end of this year it will reach UAH 2.4 trillion, the next year some UAH 2.55 trillion, and by the end of 2024 it will amount to UAH 2.89 trillion.
Finance Minister Oksana Markarova reported that the updated medium-term government debt management strategy for three years, prepared by the Ministry of Finance, sets more ambitious goals to reduce the direct public debt to GDP ratio to 50.5% by the end of this year and to 41.4% in three years and a more rapid development of the local borrowing market.
As reported, with reference to the Ministry of Finance, the ratio of the total state (direct) and guaranteed debt of Ukraine to GDP over 2018 decreased to 62.7% from 71.8%, in particular direct debt from 62% to 52.3%.
In absolute terms, the cumulative national debt of Ukraine in 2018 increased by 1.3%, to UAH 2.169 trillion, and in U.S. dollar terms by 2.5%, to $78.32 billion.