11:31 10.06.2024

Russian reserves likely to be insufficient to support simultaneous large-scale offensive efforts in several directions in Ukraine – ISW

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Russian reserves likely to be insufficient to support simultaneous large-scale offensive efforts in several directions in Ukraine – ISW

The limited operational- and strategic-level Russian reserves likely will be insufficient to support simultaneous large-scale offensive efforts in several directions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

"The Russian military command will likely have to choose one main effort during its expected summer offensive effort, if it intends for these reserves to sustain a large-scale offensive operation," it said in the June 8 assessment of the situation on the battlefield.

The ISW quoted Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets saying that Russian forces have accumulated at most 60,000 personnel in operational and strategic reserves over the past six to eight months (roughly from October 2023 to June 2024).

At the same time, experts say that Russian forces have likely not properly trained or equipped these reserves.

"ISW continues to assess that planned Russian operational- and strategic-level reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as a first-echelon penetration force or as a second-echelon exploitation force capable of conducting effective large-scale combined arms assaults. These reported limited operational- and strategic-level Russian reserves likely will be insufficient to support simultaneous large-scale offensive efforts in several directions," the ISW said.

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