Given Volodymyr Zelensky's larger-than-expected margin of victory over Petro Poroshenko, the base case for Zelensky to prevail in the run-off vote in three weeks' time has now strengthened somewhat, but Zelensky's ability to make inroads into parliament will be critical in determining his effectiveness in governing, Goldman Sachs has said in an analytical report.

"If elected president on April 21, Mr. Zelensky's ability to make inroads into parliament with his newly-formed Servant of the People party and to forge alliances with other parties will be critical in determining his effectiveness in governing," the bank said.

Goldman Sachs said that parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 27 and current polling suggests that the Rada will become more fragmented, implying the need to form a coalition to govern.

"While in principle, the president-elect has the authority to dismiss the PM, we think that PM [Volodymyr] Groysman and the current government are most likely to remain in place through October 2019 elections," the analysts said.

"Focus in the coming months will, thus, likely shift to the Rada campaign," they said.

Goldman Sachs, as many other market players, Yulia Tymoshenko's failure to make it into the run-off vote are likely to be taken positively, causing the U.S. dollar yield curve to bull-steepen and accelerating inflows into local-currency debt. . These inflows should, in turn, substantially alleviate concerns about external liquidity risk and Ukraine's near-term ability to finance its external debt redemptions.