Biomethane from Ukraine is currently competitive on the European market, but the margin is quite narrow, and a certain geopolitical situation that will reduce the price of natural gas will worsen these indicators, notes Maciej Zaniewicz, an expert of the Green Deal Ukraine project, a senior analyst at Forum Energii (Poland), who is a co-author of the study "Potential for cooperation between Ukraine and the EU in the field of biomethane" by Green Deal Ukraine and the Ukrainian Climate Office.

"What was very interesting for us (in the study) is that Ukrainian biomethane is currently competitive on European markets, but the margin is very narrow. We compared the cost of biomethane production in Ukraine with the price of natural gas now and in the future and the price of ETS (the European Emissions Trading System). And, for example, some geopolitical situation that will affect the fall in the price of natural gas may affect the fact that Ukrainian biomethane will become uncompetitive," Zaniewicz said in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine energy agency project Energy Reform.

According to him, during the study, experts calculated the option of producing biomethane at large plants, because its cost is of great importance.

"According to our calculations, it is currently approximately EUR60/MWh. Plus ETS costs, which must be calculated if we consume natural gas. And now the margin is very narrow," he indicated.

The expert added that biomethane production is only suitable for agribusinesses that will have relatively cheap raw materials.

According to him, there are many factors that will affect Ukraine's export opportunities, but which cannot be predicted now.

"And we see that the geopolitical situation is complex. And, let's assume the worst-case scenario in which Europe will follow US President Trump and, for example, return to "business as usual", in which, for example, there will be no sanctions on natural gas from Russia, and this may affect the fall in the price of natural gas. Then there will be no point in supplying biomethane from Ukraine at all," the expert noted.

In addition, according to him, everything depends on the future of climate policy, the departure from which will deprive the conditions for biomethane exports.

"However, in our opinion, these worst-case scenarios are not the most likely. Still, there will probably be no return to what was before the implementation of climate policy. What exists now will exist. As will the possibility of introducing something like ETS-2. So, the conditions for biomethane supplies from Ukraine will exist," the expert concluded.

According to him, the buyers of Ukrainian biomethane in Europe will primarily be consumers interested in reducing CO2 emissions, and those industries where natural gas cannot be replaced by electricity, for example, metallurgy.