Ukraine's GDP will fall by 4.2% in 2020, recover by 2.4% in 2021 – consensus forecast
Ukraine's GDP decline in 2020 will amount to 4.2% instead of the growth of 3.2% expected in October last year, such an updated consensus forecast was released by the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture.
"According to experts, Ukraine will show a deeper decline than the global economy, which will be 4.2% in 2020. The nature of recovery will be the same, the L-form: quarantine measures already adopted in Ukraine will be further strengthened and will last until the end of the second quarter, which will have a more negative impact on the country's economy, as a result of which recovery will be very slow," the forecast says.
According to the report, in 2021 the Ukrainian economy will return to growth and recover by 2.4%.
The experts also worsened the inflation forecast this year from 6.3% to 7%, but next year they expect it to drop to 5.9%.
According to the forecast, the average annual hryvnia to U.S. dollar exchange rate will be UAH 28.85/$.
"All elements of demand will have negative dynamics, but the largest drop will be in investments – it will amount to 14.8%," the forecast says.
The budget deficit will amount to 5.6% of GDP.
According to the consensus forecast, unemployment in Ukraine in 2020 will reach 9.4%, in 2021 some 9.1%.
The consensus forecast was prepared on the basis of updated assessments by experts from the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank, as well as more than a dozen state and non-governmental organizations and companies.