Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister Eduard Stavytsky has said he expects that Russian gas transit across Ukraine in 2013 will not be lower than in 2012.

"The transit will not be lower than the level of 2012," he told reporters in Kyiv on Wednesday.

At the same time, the minister did not specify the amount of natural gas transited in 2012, noting that the final figures will be announced on January 25.

He said that since the transit gas routes created by Russia to bypass Ukraine had not yet been commissioned, Russian gas transit through Ukraine would not significantly fall.

Gas transit supplies via Ukraine in January-November 2012 slid by 20.7%, or 19.684 bcm, year-over-year, to 75.304 bcm. Gas transit shipments in November 2012 alone declined by 35%, or 3.265 bcm, to 6.108 bcm.

In the eleven-year natural gas transit agreement Ukrainian national oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy and Russian gas monopoly Gazprom signed in 2009, there are no stipulations as to the minimum guaranteed amount of transit gas or fines for failure to meet it. The associated contract was built around the 'take or pay' principle, and although Gazprom is not fining Naftogaz Ukrainy for reducing purchase volumes, the risk is always there, and Kyiv's many attempts to get both contracts revised have proved fruitless.

With the launch of the first stretch of the Nord Stream pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine, and Gazprom's increased use of the Belarusian pipelines it controls, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine continues to fall, further worsening Naftogaz Ukrainy's already difficult financial situation. In particular, in January-October this year the amount transported through Ukraine to countries in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States dropped off 19.2% year-on-year (by 16.4 billion cubic meters (bcm)) to 69.2 bcm.

South Stream is an alternative to Nord Stream that also bypasses Ukraine. Its first stretch will have throughput capacity of 15.75 bcm and total designed capacity of 63 bcm per year and, taken with other measures, could lead to a further decrease in transit through Ukraine.

Ukraine's gas-transport system has carrying capacity at intake of 288 bcm and at outtake of 178.5 bcm, including 142.5 bcm in countries in Europe and 3.5 bcm in Moldova.