Market for guarantees of origin of electricity could reach EUR 18.7 mln by 2030, but there are barriers to launch - Guaranteed Buyer head
The volume of the market for guarantees of origin of energy (GO) in the volumes of electricity generated in 2023 could be at least UAH 321 million, or EUR 7.8 million, by 2030 it could grow to EUR 18.7 million, says Artem Nekrasov, head of the Guaranteed Buyer state enterprise.
"In principle, in the volumes of 2023, the market could additionally receive (from the sale of GO) at least UAH 321 million," Nekrasov said during the Energy Club thematic online event on Thursday.
Nekrasov explained that in its calculations, Guaranteed Buyer was guided, in particular, by the volumes of green electricity that the producers themselves sold on the free market in 2023 (1.2 million MWh), Guaranteed Buyer bought from industrial renewable energy generation (8 million MWh) and universal service providers bought from prosumers (1.5 million MWh). Thus, the volume of green electricity amounted to 10.7 million MWh, which corresponds to 10.7 million GO units.
According to Guaranteed Buyer's forecast, set out in the presentation, by 2030 the volume of "green" electricity will amount to 18.7 million MWh, respectively, 18.7 million GO can be emitted.
The calculation of the market volume was based on the current cost of GO of UAH 30 per unit until 2026, based on the CO2 emission tax, and then the cost of GO according to the National Energy and Climate Plan - EUR 1 per unit. Hence the estimated market volumes of EUR 7.8 million in 2023 and EUR 18.7 million by 2030.
At the same time, the expert emphasized that it is possible to talk about calculating the GO market volume only if "we stimulate demand for this product".
Among the problematic issues threatening the development of the GO market, he named the lack of incentives to buy them on the domestic market, since this does not provide tax and customs benefits, "as in Europe and in the world," as well as the non-recognition of GO issued by non-EU countries by EU directives, and the non-recognition of European GO in Ukraine.
In addition, he drew attention to the fact that the document regulating the issue of CBAM, the guidance document on CBAM implementation, adopted by the EU in December 2023, does not allow Ukrainian industrialists to take GO into account when calculating CO2 emissions in the production of goods for export.
"If we want GO to be sold, we need to lift the ban on their inclusion in the calculation of CO2 emissions at the level of Ukrainian legislation and amend the guidance document on CBAM implementation. Another proposal is to amend the legislation of Ukraine in order to reduce the amount of accrued obligations for eco-tax for enterprises that purchase "green" electricity and confirm this GO," Nekrasov noted.
He also added that it is necessary to facilitate the acceleration of the process of concluding an agreement between Ukraine and the EU on the mutual recognition of GO at all levels.
As reported, as of October 1, 2024, the register of guarantees of origin of the NEURC (National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission) contains records of 917 companies in the field of renewable energy sources.
In early September, JSC Market Operator presented its own software for trading them to businesses.
GO is an electronic document certifying that a certain amount of energy was produced from renewable energy sources (RES), issued by the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission and formed using the relevant register.