20:26 16.03.2023

Russia reduces pace of counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine

2 min read
Russia reduces pace of counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine

Compared to previous weeks, Russian troops have reduced the pace of the counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, the overall pace of the Russian offensive in Ukraine seems to have decreased compared to previous weeks.

Analysts note that Russian forces have achieved only minimal tactical successes along the entire front line in Luhansk region over the past week, and Ukrainian forces probably recently managed to conduct counterattacks and regain territory in the region.

In addition, according to ISW, the general offensive of the Wagner group on Bakhmut (Donetsk region) seems to be nearing its climax.

According to scientists, the recent successes of Wagner north of Bakhmut indicate that the loss of manpower, artillery and equipment in the battles for Bakhmut will probably limit the ability of the PMC to complete the dense encirclement of Bakhmut or gain significant territory in the battles for urban areas.

They also assume that the capture of small settlements north of Bakhmut and east of the highway is unlikely to strengthen Wagner's ability to capture Bakhmut itself or achieve other important successes from an operational point of view.

The report notes that, "they will probably be able to do this, since the ISW has been monitoring units of Russian airborne regiments in and around Bakhmut, which do not seem to be too involved in the fighting at the moment. The Russians may also bring elements of other conventional units into the battle, including, perhaps, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, or units recruited from other parts of the theater of operations."

The ISW admits that the Wagner offensive itself will not be enough to capture Bakhmut.

“Russian forces are not pursuing active or successful offensive operations elsewhere in theater, and as the pace of operations slows along critical sectors of the front, Ukrainian forces likely have an increased opportunity to regain the initiative,” the Institute said.

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