Ukraine's GDP in 2023 will decrease by 0.1% with inflation of 16.9% - consensus forecast
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2023 will decrease by 0.1% with a spread of estimates from a decline of 4.6% to an increase of 5.5%, such a consensus forecast of eight companies and non-state institutions was published by the Center for Economic Strategy on Monday.
According to a forecast involving Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital, Sense Bank, Oxford Economics, ICU, the Center for Economic Policy Research, Morgan Stanley and the German Economic Team, the spread in nominal GDP estimates is smaller, from $152 billion to $161 billion, with an average value of $155 billion.
As for inflation, its estimate ranges from 14.5% to 18.7%, with an average value of 16.9%.
The consensus forecast for 2023 gives an average annual hryvnia exchange rate of UAH 37.9/$1 with a spread from UAH 36.6/$1 to UAH 39.5/$1, and the average exchange rate at the end of the year is UAH 41.3/$1 with a spread of UAH 36.6/$1 to UAH 45/$1.
According to the average opinion of analysts, Ukraine's international reserves, which now amount to $29.9 billion, will remain almost at the same level by the end of the year - $29.5 billion (the range of estimates is from $26.3 billion to $33 billion), and the average debt to GDP will reach 93%.
According to the estimates presented, the Ukrainian government's need for financing this year ranges from $44.8 billion to $57 billion with an average value of $51.1 billion, while foreign aid is still expected to be in the range of $37-43.2 billion, or an average of $40.2 billion
All participants in the consensus forecast assume the continuation of the grain corridor, and only two - the end of the war in 2023 (in the middle of the year or in the third quarter).
During the discussion, analysts complained about the lack of data from the State Statistics Service, criticizing the delay in publishing data for six months. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko acknowledged that there is a real problem with the lack of data. According to the head of the ministry, six months ago he raised the issue of resuming statistics with the government, but to no avail, and expressed hope that the Ministry of Economy would support him in the second attempt.
