Economy Ministry predicts 7.8% rise of exports in 2020
The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine predicts an increase in exports of goods and services in 2020 year-on-year of up to 7.8% under a conservative scenario and up to 8.8% under an optimistic scenario.
According to the main forecast macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine's economic and social development for 2020-2022, posted on the website of the government portal, imports of goods and services next year should rise by 9.6% according to conservative estimates and by 12.9% under the optimistic scenario.
In general, as the ministry expects, in 2020, according to the first scenario, export figures will grow to $68.642 billion, according to the second one to $69.27 billion, imports to $83.524 billion and $86.013 billion respectively.
The deficit of the trade balance of payments will amount to $14.882 billion next year according to conservative estimates and $16.743 billion according to optimistic estimates, the document says.
The growth of nominal inflation-adjusted wage will be 10.1% (10.4% under the second scenario), the ministry expects.
The ministry also said that the unemployment rate in 2020 will be 8.1% (7.3% according to optimistic estimates), labor productivity will increase by 3.2% (2.6%), and the index of prices of industrial producers will grow by 8.2% (9%).
According to the document, the average annual inflation next year in the macro forecast is set at the level of 6.4%, by the end of 2020 at 5.5%. The optimistic scenario provides for an average annual inflation of 6.6% and 5.8% by the end of the year.