Terms of start of seasonal devaluation to shift closer to Oct – bankers
The terms of the start of the seasonal devaluation of the hryvnia could shift closer to early October, according to bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine.
"Today, we can already say that the beginning of the seasonal growth of the U.S. dollar is not as usual: by mid-August, a stable devaluation trend of the U.S. dollar is observed, the market hovered at the level of a three-year low of UAH 25-25.20/$1. This year we should expect the traditional beginning of the devaluation trend for the hryvnia with a slight delay – from the beginning of October," Director of the Treasury of Bank Credit Dnipro Oleh Kurinny said.
According to him, the main factor in strengthening the hryvnia exchange rate was the increased demand for hryvnia-pegged government bonds from nonresidents.
"In the autumn, as a rule, demand for energy increases and, in addition, a peak amount of repayment of external loans is expected, which may affect the weakening of the hryvnia. However, a record grain harvest and a decent amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves allow us to hope that the devaluation, if any, will be insignificant," the expert added.
According to him, subject to the preservation of political stability by the end of this year, the hryvnia exchange rate will remain in the range of UAH 25.5-26.5/$1.