Launch of electricity market to slightly impact inflation – NBU
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has found it difficult to precisely assess the impact of the launch of the new model of the electricity market from July 1, although the central bank said that this factor would slightly impact inflation over the low share of electricity of the consumer basket.
"[The issue of] operating for this [electricity] market from July 1 is still open. Our official forecast for today envisages that this year prices will rise by 25% from July and this will affect inflation y 0.2 percentage points (p.p.), since the share of electricity is about or less than 1%," NBU Deputy Governor Dmytro Sologub said at a briefing on Thursday.
He added that in the updated macroeconomic forecast on July 25 of this year, the NBU will give more clear information.
At the same time, he reiterated that even if the growth of tariffs exceeds 25%, this will not particularly affect the overall index of consumer inflation, since the share of this component is insignificant.
As reported, the National Commission for the Energy, Housing and Utilities Services Regulation (NCER) predicts that electricity prices for non-households would grow by 40-50% after the launch of the new market model from July 1. A number of experts, supported by international donors, proposed to postpone the launch of the market for three months to better prepare for it, but there are still not enough votes in the Verkhovna Rada to make this decision.
At the same time, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said it was necessary to enter the market as scheduled from July 1, arguing that the government took all measures to ensure that electricity prices for households remain the same.