U.S. sanctions against Russia not to affect Ukrainian currency market – bankers
The devaluation of the Russian ruble after the introduction of new sanctions by the United States against companies, oligarchs and officials of the Russian Federation would not affect the Ukrainian currency market, according to bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine.
"The new U.S. sanctions against Russian companies, oligarchs and officials provoked the fall of Russian stocks in the stock markets and devaluation of the ruble, while the hryvnia in recent days, on the contrary, has strengthened under the influence of the seasonal prevalence of the currency supply over demand thanks to the start of the agricultural season and the end of the heating season," Head of the Investor Relations Department of Credit Dnepr Bank Andriy Prykhodko said.
At the same time, he said that the devaluation of the ruble against the strengthening the hryvnia to the U.S. dollar means a rise in the price of Ukrainian goods on the Russian market.
"To date, Ukraine's export dependence on the Russian Federation is not so significant: Russia's share of Ukrainian commodity exports amounted to 9% by the end of 2017. By comparison, in 2013 the supply of goods to the Russian Federation amounted to 24% of total exports. The price increase effect has a time lag and will manifest itself in the medium term," the expert said.
Board Chairman of RwS Bank Vladyslav Kravets believes that Ukraine is not expected to face direct risks for Ukrainian companies and banks in connection with anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the United States.
"For the first time in 25 years of Ukraine's independence, the sharp decline in the ruble's exchange rate has not adversely affected the hryvnia exchange rate, which, in turn, also attests to achieving greater energy independence of the country. The export earnings of Ukrainian companies in Russian rubles are small, so the country's market will not feel the indirect influence of anti-Russian sanctions," the banker said.
At the same time, in his opinion, the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the United States can lead to a decrease in the level of support from the Russian parent structures of its subsidiaries in Ukraine.
"The quality of credit portfolios of Russian banks as a result of the U.S. sanctions may worsen, which will lead to a reduction in the support of their subsidiaries in Ukraine," Kravets said.