13:50 17.06.2015

ICU updates GDP forecasts for Ukraine: worse in 2015, better in 2016

2 min read
ICU updates GDP forecasts for Ukraine: worse in 2015, better in 2016

The ICU investment group has forecast that due to the financial crisis early this year, Ukraine's GDP decline in 2015 will be 13.1% against the previously predicted 7.6%, but economic stabilization is expected as early as Q2, 2015, with the GDP forecast for 2016 reviewed from 0% to 2.5% growth.

"If early this year we predicted that a noticeable revival of the Ukrainian economy will begin in 2017 only with a zero GDP growth in 2016, now we forecast that the economy will demonstrate a 2.5% growth as early as next year," Oleksander Valchyshen, the head of ICU's Research Department, Member of Investment Committee, said.

According to him, after the accelerated economic contraction of 6.5% in Q1 2015 against Q1, 2014, signs have began to appear which indicate macroeconomic and financial stabilization, which will be conducive to economic recovery.

In particular, he pointed out the record high surplus of the primary balance of the consolidated budget at 0.7% of GDP in April 2015, which was the best indicator since pre-crisis August 2007.

"The model of economy management aimed at financial stability has been considerably improved since March," he said.

The ICU forecasts that the stabilization of the economy is to be expected as early as at the end of the second quarter of 2015, which will reverse the accelerated decline trend seen in the past five quarters – from Q1, 2014, to 1Q, 2015, inclusive.

"We look at the economic recovery pace with optimism. According to ICU's estimates, the quarterly GDP growth rate (in comparison with the previous period and with due regard to seasonality) in the country in the second quarter will be 0.8%, in the third quarter 0.2%, in the fourth 0.5%," he said.

Valchyshen added that the reviewed macroeconomic forecasts for 2016-2017 were based on the balanced national budget (in the terms of the primary balance), a gradual increase in forex reserves, the renewal of foreign direct investment inflows and a lowered inflation rate.

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