The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in June improved its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth this year from the range of "-3% to +1%” to “from +1% to +3%”, is currently assessing the dynamics of the economy closer to the upper end of this new range, said Deputy Chief of the IMF Mission for Ukraine Natan Epstein.

We are still in the process of updating our estimate of economic output for this year and next, but we see that growth will likely end this year at 3%, he said at a press conference in Kyiv following the visit of the fund delegation.

According to Epstein, the main driver of growth is domestic demand and private consumption, while exports are weak and are not helped by the recent suspension of the grain corridor.

But the economy is certainly adapting. It is showing remarkable resilience, and we expect growth to continue next year, the IMF official said.

He added that the fund is still sticking to the base scenario, according to which the war will end in the middle of next year. According to Epstein, given the expected difficulties of the coming winter, we are talking about moderate economic growth rates.

IMF Mission Chief Gavin Gray said the second review of the EFF program would involve updating the macroeconomic framework.

He recalled that the program initially has a negative scenario with the continuation of the war for a longer period, which involves an increase in the external financial package from $115 billion to $140 billion at the expense of donors over the period of its operation, but also additional measures on the part of the Ukrainian authorities.

Gray emphasized that such a negative macro-scenario and the reaction to it is discussed with each review of the program.