18:39 24.11.2021

IMF downgrades estimate of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%

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IMF downgrades estimate of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its estimate of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%, compared with 3.5% in the October forecast, according to Ukraine's memorandum with the fund, released on November 24.

According to the report, the IMF left unchanged the expectations of the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 at 3.6%, in 2023 - 3.4%.

Although in the October forecast the fund estimated the current account deficit of Ukraine at 0.7% of GDP, and in the next - 2.4% of GDP, the memorandum provides for a forecast of a zero current account balance in 2021 with a further transition to a current account deficit of up to 2.7% GDP in 2022 and 3.2% of GDP in 2023, the document says.

At the same time, the forecast provides for the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) at the level of 3.3% of GDP in the current year, 2.4% of GDP in the next year and 2.5% in 2023.

As reported, in 2020 the Ukrainian economy fell by 4% with an average annual inflation rate of 2.7%. In 2021, the Ministry of Economy expects growth by 4.1% of GDP.

In October, the NBU downgraded the estimate of GDP growth in 2021 from 3.8% to 3.1%, in 2022 - to 3.8% from 4%. At the same time, the deputy head of the NBU admitted that, taking into account the data of the State Statistics Service for the third quarter of 2021, the growth of Ukraine's GDP in 2021 may be lower than the 3.1% projected by the central bank.

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