NBU estimates GDP fall in Q2 2020 at 11%
Real GDP declined by approximately 11% year-over-year in Q2 2020, according to estimates of the National Bank of Ukraine outlined in its inflation report posted on its website on Thursday.
According to the document, real GDP declined as a result of full-scale quarantine restrictions on certain activities. An additional negative contribution came from the decline in agriculture amid later start of the harvesting campaign.
According to the report, the NBU and the government's stimulus measures have supported business activity and private consumption.
The central bank said that as quarantine measures were eased, both domestic and global economic activity began a gradual recovery as soon as May. The revival in world economic activity drove price growth in the global commodity markets. Most domestic businesses in the services sector, which bore the brunt of the fallout from the coronavirus crisis, have already returned to full operations.
According to the regulator, Ukraine's GDP decline in Q3 2020 would slow to 7.4% year-over-year, and in Q4 2020 – to 3.8% year-over-year.
It is expected that the nominal GDP of Ukraine in Q2 will amount to UAH 864 billion, in Q3 – UAH 1.073 trillion and in Q4 – UAH 1.126 trillion, and at the end of the year – UAH 3.91 trillion.
According to the report, by late Q2, the government had accumulated significant budget resources with which to support the economy and to finance debt repayments.