12:08 21.08.2015

Ukraine, creditors could use give-and-take policy, agree haircut for 20% of debt – analysts

3 min read
Ukraine, creditors could use give-and-take policy, agree haircut for 20% of debt – analysts

The Special Creditors' Committee of the Ukrainian authorities could use the give-and-take policy as part of the negotiations on the restructuring of eurobonds and an agreement on a haircut of around 20% of the debt could be reached, according to analysts polled by Interfax-Ukraine.

"My view is that if they reach a deal, it's likely that the creditors have moved closer to the Ukrainian position and met them in the middle. In any case, the IMF's criteria (including the 71% debt/GDP) constrains the ability of the Ukrainians to accept a deal with a small haircut. I don't have specific views on market pricing at this point, given that there are a lot of factors that come into play here," Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Matheny said.

Matheny said he is still skeptical about whether if the two sides are close enough to reach a deal, given the 5% vs. 40% haircut positions the opposing sides held as recently as a couple weeks ago.

Analyst of Sberbank CIB Alexander Golinsky said that their baseline view is a notional haircut of 25-30%, ruling out a write-down greater than 35% or smaller that 20%.

"As per coupons, we believe the rates are not to exceed 5.5% over the next five years. Following this period, we model step-up bond structure: coupon rates can reach 7.0-8.5% in the longer term," he said.

"Ukraine will do all it can to secure an agreement on the restructuring with all private debt holders by September 23. To avoid any complication to the restructuring, it will serve its current debts, properly paying down the coupons of the outstanding liabilities," Golinsky said.

Alexander Valchyshen, Head of Research at ICU Group, said that the agreement would include a 25% nominal haircut and a 4.5% coupon rate.

Analyst of Nomura Dmitri Petrov said that as per their initial base case, Nomura expects the haircut on principal will be around 15% upfront, coupons will beset at 2% until 2020, and then increased to 7%.

"Repayments from 2020 until 2026. With our current exit yields assumption (12% to 14%) the bonds fair value should be between $49-43. We think the accrued interest will be included in the calculation or the bond package. Current bond prices trade at $56 which implies about 0% to 5% haircut or very optimistic exit yield assumptions," he said.

"This Wednesday marks exactly five weeks before Ukraine’s next sovereign eurobond maturity of $500 million on September 23 – the time frame the government would need to complete necessary restructuring-related legal steps (three weeks’ notice for a bondholder meeting and another two for adjournment in case of no quorum)," Fyodor Bagnenko, Fixed Income Trader, Dragon Capital, said.

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