Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of April 25th

Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation

 

Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of the past 24 hours of April 25th, based on an analysis of open sources.

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the decisive battle for the Donbas area.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemies are  focusing their efforts on the Kherson-Mykolaiiv and Kherson-Kryvyi Rih directions in the Pivdennyi Buh area.

In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the enemy, having intensified shelling with available means of fire destruction, tried to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Korovii Yar and Rubizhne, to continue an attack in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. The enemy was unsuccessful and sustained losses.

In Mariupol, the russians continue to destroy the city, blocking locals and some Ukrainian defenders near the Azovstal plant.

In the Slobozhanshchyna region, Kharkiv is being partially blocked, its infrastructure is being destroyed, and the positions of the defenders of the Kharkiv region are being destroyed with the use of aircraft and artillery.

In the area of the city of Izium, the enemy tried to improve the tactical situation in the directions Andriyivka - Zavody and Dibrovne – Kurul’ka. The enemy carries out measures of logistical support for the group of occupiers.

In the temporarily occupied territories of the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, the occupiers are engaged in looting, theft and robbery of the local population. Special attention is paid to the "removal" of alcoholic beverages and food.

In the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, in the urban settlement of Velyka Oleksandrivka, the occupiers announced to the local population that it was necessary for them to leave the settlement by April 28th. Forced evacuation will be applied to residents who do not comply with the order.

In the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, in the city of Enerhodar, the FSB continues to conduct filtering activities.

The total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 24 were approximately: combatants - about 21,900 people were eliminated (+100 from the previous day), tanks - 884 units (+11), armoured combat vehicles - 2258 units (+20), artillery systems - 411 units (+3), MLRS - 149 units (+2), air defence - 69 units, aircraft - 181 units (+2), helicopters - 154 units, automotive equipment - 1566 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76, UAV operational and tactical level - 201 (+10), special equipment - 28, launchers TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers – 4.

The heavy losses of the enemy of the past day were observed in the Severodonetsk direction (30 separate motorised infantry brigades of the 2nd Military Army of the russian federation).

2. Information summaries, reviews and assessments of foreign, Ukrainian intelligence and think tanks.

According to the reviews of UK intelligence, russia aims to organise a pseudo-referendum in Kherson, which is key for the invaders to justify their occupation. The city is key to russia's goal of establishing a land connection with the Crimea and dominating southern Ukraine. The UK believes that russia has achieved very little success after deciding to shift the focus of their assault to the full occupation of the Donbas.

It is impossible to talk about a tangible breakthrough without the necessary logistics and combat support. russia has decided to block rather than storm the Azovstal plant, which stifles many russian units in Mariupol and these cannot be redeployed.

Also, according to the intelligence of the UK Ministry of Defence, the russian Ministry of Defence wants to control the payments to the families of those killed in Ukraine in order to hide the real scale of losses.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, russia has not abandoned plans to use chemical weapons against Ukrainian defenders and civilians stationed at the Azovstal plant.

In order to avoid casualties among the servicemen of the russian armed forces, the so-called "smoking out" of Ukrainian defenders and civilians from the company's premises may be carried out. Besides, the groups of “radiation, chemical and biological protection” will use aerosols with chemical weapons.

Another confirmation of the kremlin's plans to use chemical weapons is that russia has already spread false information about the alleged presence of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine.

3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide against Ukrainians.

International and national investigation into the genocide of the russian occupiers against Ukrainians. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has joined a joint investigation team into Ukraine's war crimes over russia's invasion. The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Karim Khan and the Prosecutors General of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine signed an agreement on the first-ever participation and accession of the ICC Prosecutor's Office to a joint investigation team.

According to the prosecutor's office, as of April 25th, 3,818 civilians were killed and more than 4,000 were injured in Ukraine.

This number, which is available to the prosecutor's office, is the same as the one presented in UN statistics, as it does not take into account the blocked Mariupol and those places in the Kyiv region where the prosecutor's office could not have yet reached.

According to the prosecutor's office, 5,730 Ukrainians were forcibly relocated to the occupied territories and the russian federation, excluding Mariupol. It is not yet possible to verify this data by investigation.

Satellites Planet Labs recorded the third mass burial of civilians in the suburbs of Mariupol. In the village of Staryi Krym, 5 kilometers from Mariupol, satellites took a picture a new trench of more than 200 meters long, which may be another place of mass burial of killed Mariupol residents.

The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. As of the morning of April 25th, 606 children were injured in Ukraine as a result of armed aggression by the russian federation. According to officials, 215 children were killed and more than 391 injured.

Most children were affected in the Donetsk (124), Kyiv (114), Kharkiv (93), Chernihiv (66), Kherson (44), Mykolaiiv (43), Luhansk (37), Zaporizhzhia (27), Sumy (17), Zhytomyr (15) regions and in Kyiv City (16).

On April 24th, as a result of shelling by russian troops in the village two girls aged 5 and 14 died in Krasnohorivka, in the Donetsk region.

On April 23rd-24th, the occupiers fired on the Kharkiv region again. An 11-year-old boy was injured in the shelling in Chuhuiiv.

April 23rd, due to shelling, a 12-year-old child was injured in Turove, in the Bohodukhiv district of the Kharkiv region.

The russian occupiers kill and abduct civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the russian occupiers are introducing measures restricting the rights and freedoms of civilians, including freedom of movement.

On April 24th, when the Orthodox celebrated Easter, the russians deported residents from the blockaded Mariupol to russia – in general, 149 people, including 23 children.

In Melitopol, information is spread that the occupation authorities have decided to completely close the entrance and exit from the temporarily occupied Crimea from April 30th. The decision was made to prevent the disruption of the spring conscription campaign in the occupied territories, as many Ukrainian men travel to the peninsula in transit with a subsequent route to Georgia, Poland and the Baltic countries.

The heads of two communities in the Zaporizhzhia region, Novouspenivska and Kyrylivska, Ivan Senyk and Ivan Malieiev, have been released from russian captivity.

The russian invaders are launching missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns and villages. On the morning of April 25th, the russian occupiers fired on five railway stations in central and western Ukraine. Two missiles flew over the Khmelnytskyi NPP. Because of enemy shelling, 5 people were killed and 18 were injured.

As a result of the missile strike, an explosion occurred at the traction substation of the Krasne railway station in the Lviv region. Due to the damage to traction substations, there was no voltage in the cables on the sections Shepetivka - Koziatyn, Zhmerynka - Koziatyn, Koziatyn - Fastiv.

The russian aggressors struck 2 oil refineries and facilities in 6 regions of Ukraine.

The Poltava region: on Sunday evening, 9 missiles hit the Kremenchuh refinery and Kremenchuh CHP. One person died and 7 were injured. All fires are localised, almost all areas of the city are without hot water.

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, there were several air alarms per night. At midnight, the occupiers fired on the Shyrokivska community bordering the Kherson region from the “Urahany” and hit the surrounding area. Previously, no one was injured.

The Kharkiv region: artillery shelling of the most residential areas of Kharkiv continued on the night of April 25th. Information about the victims is still being clarified, in the morning, there was information about one victim.

The shelling in Chuhuiiv, Zolochiv and settlements of the districts were intensive during Easter. During the day, in the area 2 people were killed and 11 were injured.

Because of the enemy shelling on April 25th, three residents of the village of Bezruky near Derhachi in the Kharkiv region were killed.

The Luhansk region: the entire region is under heavy russian fire. Three high-rise buildings and four private houses were burnt down. For the third time, the russian army has hit an oil refinery in Lysychansk.

The Donetsk region: there was heavy shelling of settlements along the demarcation line. As a result, 5 civilians were killed, including two children. Since the night of April 25th, shelling has continued in Maryinska territory, Toretsk, near Avdjiivka and Lyman. At least one civilian was killed and four wounded in the morning - in Lyman, in the villages of Shandryholove and Serednie.

4. Evacuation of civilians, exchange of prisoners.

The russian Ministry of Defence has assured that their armed groups will not fire from 2 pm (Kyiv time) on April 25th and will allow civilians to leave the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, and claims that the humanitarian corridor has been operating for 36 days - while, according to the Ukrainian side, the shelling did not stop.

Deputy Prime Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk denied russia's statement that there were agreements on humanitarian corridors with Azovstal in the blocked Mariupol.

She said that "today the russian side has once again announced the existence of a corridor for civilians to leave Azovstal. This could be believed if the russians had not disrupted the humanitarian corridors many times before. "Unfortunately, Azovstal has no agreements for today."

Iryna Vereshchuk says that the Ukrainian authorities have appealed to UN Secretary General António Gutteres having asked him to initiate and guarantee the Azovstal humanitarian corridor for civilians. Official Kyiv hopes for the effectiveness of the UN Secretary General's talks with russian representatives.

The head of the Luhansk region, Serhii Haidai, once again called on residents to evacuate so as not to fall victim to forced deportation to russia.

More than 20 tons of humanitarian and technical cargo needed for the operation of nuclear and thermal power plants were delivered to Enerhodar.

Ukrainian Su-25 pilot Roman Vasyliuk, who was shot down by enemy air defences in the Donetsk region in March, was released from russian captivity.

5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, economic losses due to Russian aggression.

Signs of recovery of the Ukrainian economy. The Kovalska Industrial and Construction Group is assessing the feasibility of relocating part of its production facilities to the western region. At the same time, Kovalska resumes production lines at three plants in Kyiv, quarries in the Zhytomyr region and a construction hub in the Lviv region.

Restoration of infrastructure in the occupied territories. According to the Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko, 11 temporary bridges were built in the Kyiv region instead of those destroyed during the russian army's attacks.

In the past 24 hours alone, electricity supply has been restored in 16 settlements in the Kyiv region, and more than 80,000 subscribers have been replenished. Gas distribution in 106 settlements has been fully or partially restored. Almost 170 km of streets were cleared in the liberated settlements.

The Nova Poshta postal service resumed operations in the deoccupied Kyiv region and opened branches in Bucha, Irpin, Makariv and Kolonshchyna.

6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.

Political support for Ukraine. During a secret visit to Kyiv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Pentagon chief announced the return of US diplomats to Ukraine and the appointment of diplomat Bridget Brink as the new US Ambassador to Ukraine. As Information Defence experts state this will intensify the cooperation between two countries.

Blinken said on Monday after a visit to Kyiv that a sovereign independent Ukraine would last much longer than russian president putin.

The United States believes that Ukraine can win the war against russia with the right equipment and support. Defense Minister Lloyd Austin told reporters on Monday after a visit to Kyiv, CNN reports.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson met with UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Sunday to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Johnson and Guterres discussed the need to ensure a ceasefire, promote humanitarian efforts and allow civilians to leave Mariupol and Kherson. Boris Johnson called putin's actions in Ukraine disgusting and outright aggression, which has devastating consequences for the Ukrainian people.

Military assistance to Ukraine. During a visit to Kyiv on April 24, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Minister Lloyd Austin announced foreign military funding for Ukraine and 15 allied and partner countries worth $713 million. About $ 322 million is provided for Kyiv .

Such funding differs from previous US military assistance to Ukraine. This is not a donation from the US Department of Defense, but real money that countries can use to buy supplies that they may need.

The new money, along with the sale of $165 million in non-US and non-US-compatible weapons, has increased total US military aid to Ukraine to $3.7 billion since the invasion.

The Pentagon will expand training for the Ukrainian military, in particular on the use of new weapons provided to them as part of Western military assistance.

The United Kingdom is handing over to Ukraine a small number of Stormer armoured personnel carriers equipped with Starstreak anti-aircraft missile launchers to strengthen the country's air defences. The Minister of Defence Ben Wallace stated this in the House of Commons, according to the BBC.

7. Statements, provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.

At about 10:00 a.m. on April 24th in Vasylivka, shelling began. The rockets, according to locals, flew to the places where the consecration of Easter cakes was announced the other day, and the attack began immediately with the start of service. At the same time, russians are spreading false information which alleges that Ukrainian soldiers are shooting at civilians.

The Security Service of Ukraine reports that it was curious to see another "creativity" of the FSB, who "heroically detained neo-Nazis" who allegedly planned to assassinate “public figure” Vladimir Solovyov at the behest of the Security Service of Ukraine, and, therefore, wants to report the following:

First. The Security Service of Ukraine is systematically working to strengthen the security of our state and does not intend to seriously comment on the new fantasies of the russian secret services.

Second. Solovyov is not a public figure, but an ordinary propagandist - a russian version of Goebbels - who will be held accountable for his crimes in international courts after Ukraine's victory.

Third. The Security Service of Ukraine has no plans to assassinate Solovyov.

8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.

New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Member States of the European Union do not agree on a full embargo or increase in tariffs on imports of russian oil and gas. Borrell said the issue would be discussed at the next EU summit in late May, and that he did not expect any decision on the matter before.

According to Information Defence analysts, the sixth package of the EU sanctions will not unanimously agree on the application of a full oil and gas embargo against russia.

Azerbaijan State Oil Company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) stated that Azerbaijan will not pay for russian gas in rubles.

The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. In russia, the shortage of expensive drugs is growing. At the beginning of April, the Ministry of Health of the russian federation has almost exhausted the budget for this year for the purchase of drugs under the state program for 14 high-cost disease treatments - the deficit of funding for the program is growing.

The largest russian IT companies have problems with the purchase of foreign computer equipment - servers and storage systems: VK asked the Ministry of Digital Transformations of the russian federation to help with the purchase of "several thousands of servers" against the background of a shortage of imported equipment.

russian oil trader Rosneft was unable to sell 6.5 million tons of oil during the tender because it demanded a full prepayment in rubles. Reuters  reported this with reference to 5 traders.

The passenger traffic of the Aeroflot Group, which in addition to the airline of the same name includes the low -cost carrier Pobeda and the charter carrier Russia, fell by 20.4% in March compared to the same period last year (!).