Information Defence: Military-Political Situation in Ukraine as of April 16th
Ihor Zhdanov, Information Defence Project, Open Policy Foundation
Informational Defence of Ukraine provides a daily review of the military-political situation in Ukraine as of April 16th, based on an analysis of open sources.
1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions and continue counterattacks.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the russians concentrated up to 22 battalion tactical groups in the Izium area. It is possible that the enemy will intensify in the direction of Izium and Barvinkove to retreat to the rear of the Joint Forces in the area of Sloviansk.
In the Slobozhanskyi direction, the occupiers continue fighting, e.g. their separate units of the 6th and 20th Military Armies, the 1st Panzer Army of the Western Military District, the 35th and 36th Military Armies and the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District, landing troops, coastal troops of the Baltic and Northern Fleets. The invaders continue to encircle the parts of Kharkiv and its artillery shelling.
In the Donetsk and Tavriia directions, the enemy is trying to hold the occupied territories. The main effort is to take control of Popasna and Rubizhne, establishing full control over Mariupol.
In the Pivdennyi Buh direction, the enemy is strengthening its forward positions, presumably by units of the mobilization reserve of the first and second Army Corps. It is expected that the enemy will continue to fight to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson region and resume the attacks.
Total combat losses of the enemy from February 24 to April 16 are approximately: combatants - about 20,100 people, tanks - 762 units, armored combat vehicles - 1982 units, artillery systems - 371 units, MLRS - 125 units, air defense - 66 units, aircraft - 163 units, helicopters - 145 units, motor vehicles - 1458 units, ships / boats - 8 units, fuel tanks - 76, operational-tactical UAVs - 138, special equipment - 26, TBM / BRBM (tactical ballistic missile / battlefield range ballistic missile) launchers - 4.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in the CNN interview that approximately 2,500-3,000 Ukrainian servicemen had died in the war. President Zelenskyy added that approximately 10,000 Ukrainian servicemen were injured and that "it is difficult to say how many of them will survive."
russia's losses: approximately 20,000 troops, which is 7 times more than the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that negotiations were underway to help Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, but the russians demanded them to surrender. The head of Ukraine is confident that the destruction of Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol will put an end to the negotiations with russia.
2. Information summaries and assessments of foreign and Ukrainian intelligence.
According to the UK intelligence, the russian military has severely damaged the transport infrastructure in Ukraine, which, even after their departure from the north of the country, causes problems there for the movement and delivery of humanitarian aid.
Ukrainian intelligence has reported that russian FSB officers arrested and deported Eduard Basurin, the leader of the so-called DNR (Donetsk People’s Republic) militants, for disclosing plans to use chemical weapons in Mariupol.
3. The russian occupiers are violating international humanitarian law and committing genocide of Ukrainians.
The Committee on Freedom of Speech of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine reported on 21 documented cases of death of media representatives since the beginning of the full-scale russian-Ukrainian war.
The russian aggressors kill Ukrainian children. Since February 24th, 560 children have been injured in Ukraine as a result of a full-scale armed aggression by the russian federation, 200 of them are dead and more than 360 have been wounded.
The most affected children were in the Donetsk region - 117, the Kyiv region - 105, the Kharkiv region - 88, the Chernihiv region - 54, the Kherson region - 41, the Mykolaiiv region - 40, the Luhansk region - 36, the Zaporizhzhia region - 23, Kyiv City - 16, the Sumy region - 16, the Zhytomyr region - 15.
On April 15th, the russian troops fired on a district of Kharkiv. Because of the shelling, five children were injured, two died, including a 7-month-old baby.
The bombing and shelling of the russian armed forces damaged 1,018 educational institutions, 95 of which were completely destroyed.
The russian invaders launch missile and bomb strikes on civilians, towns, and villages, and mine the occupied territories. Because of a rocket attack on the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv on April 16th, one person died and several people were hospitalized.
On April 16th, a rocket attack was carried out in one of Kharkiv's central districts, killing one person and injuring at least 18.
The rrussians fired on the Lysychansk refinery on the morning of April 16th, has said Serhii Haidai, the head of the regional state administration.
The occupiers, retreating from the Kyiv region, left explosives in the cars of residents, streamers in houses, unexploded ordnance and mines on the roads - all this kills and injures local people.
For example, in early April, a 46-year-old Kyiv resident was delivering medicines to his mother in the Vyshhorod district, and he exploded on an explosive trap on a forest road near the village of Fenevychi. The man died immediately from his injuries.
The russian occupiers kidnap civilians, hold them hostage and torture them. The occupiers of Mariupol are preparing to close the city to entry and exit from April 18th, as well as to ban movements in the districts in order to filter all men - some of them want to get mobilized to the army.
The russian authorities have announced that they have begun deporting Ukrainians (about 100 people) from Izium, the Kharkiv region, to the territory of the russian federation.
The russians are forcibly deporting from Ukraine people who due to the russian inadequate actions were in a blockade and humanitarian catastrophe.
4. The evacuation of civilians is under attacks from the russian aggressors.
According to the head of the Ministry of Reintegration Iryna Vereshchuk, on April 16th, 2022, 9 humanitarian corridors were confirmed:
- from Mariupol, Berdiansk, Tokmak and Enerhodar to Zaporizhzhia by own transport. Due to weather conditions, evacuation buses cannot leave Mariupol and Vasylivka to Zaporizhzhia;
- from Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Popasna, Rubizhne, Hirske to Bakhmut. Humanitarian corridors in the Luhansk region will operate in case of cessation of shelling by the occupying forces.
During April 16th, 1211 people moved to Zaporizhzhia in their own cars from the captured Polohy, Vasylivka, Berdiansk and Mariupol. 130 people moved from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia on their own vehicles.
In the Luhansk region, despite constant shelling by the russian occupiers, 68 people were deported from Severodonetsk, Kreminna and Rubizhne. Due to the devastating shelling of the russian occupiers, the evacuation of civilians from Lysychansk was completely thwarted.
On April 16, the Ukrainian authorities managed to organize the evacuation of 1,499 people.
5. Political and socio-economic situation in Ukraine, losses due to the russian aggression.
Society demonstrates solidarity, patriotism and faith in victory. More than 10,000 people have registered on the SES website to help rescuers dismantle debris in towns and villages destroyed by the russian occupiers and rebuild the country.
Rinat Akhmetov stated that his company SCM would play a key role in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine and Mariupol in particular.
Thanks to the Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian and Social Affairs, Ukrainians were able to deliver 270,000 tons of humanitarian aid, as well as evacuate civilians and raise funds for philanthropists.
The Ukrainian economy, despite the negative effects of hostilities, is demonstrating recovery. Starting from February 24th, the amount of funds on current accounts of Ukrainians in Oschadbank increased from UAH 115.2 billion to UAH 128.8 billion. The bank believes that such dynamics testifies to the significant trust of Ukrainians.
Ukraine is rebuilding infrastructure in the occupied territories. The last of four gas distribution stations, which were shut down in mid-March due to damage to the gas transmission infrastructure in the Kyiv region due to enemy shelling, has returned to functioning.
38 out of 1,395 GDSs (Gas distributing station) in six regions of Ukraine remain suspended due to hostilities.
In the Kyiv region, the overpass near Stoianka is being restored, which will resume traffic on the Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway.
During the day, pyrotechnic units of the SES were involved 206 times, 1,669 explosive devices, including 2 aerial bombs, were found, seized and neutralized, and an area of 329 hectares was inspected.
6. International support and assistance to Ukraine.
Political support for Ukraine and security guarantees. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that the United Kingdom, the United States, Italy, and Turkey are ready to become Ukraine's guarantors, but no one has yet given a final answer.
According to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the peace treaty with the russian federation could consist of two separate documents: “The peace treaty with russia can consist of two different documents”.
Military assistance to Ukraine. Representatives of the US government are concerned that Ukrainians will run out of ammunition, especially artillery, if the intensity of hostilities in the East increases significantly. According to the official, the russian attack in Donbas is expected to be intensified in the near future.
He added that during the previous hostilities in 2022, the Armed Forces could use about one thousand artillery shells daily. The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chief of the US Military Command General Mark Milley call their colleagues in Eastern Europe every day to encourage the acceleration of arms supplies to Ukraine.
For several weeks, Ukraine has been asking the United States for anti-ship missiles and other weapons for coastal defence. The New York Times reported this with the reference to US officials.
The United States has responded by adding coastal defence weapons to a $ 800 million military aid package announced this week.
According to The Times, for the first time since the start of the war with russia, the UK Special Air Service has trained local troops in Kyiv. Officers from two battalions stationed in and around the capital. It is said they have undergone military training in the UK Special Forces for the last two weeks.
The Minister of Finance Christian Lindner has announced that Germany will increase its military support fund to 2 billion euros, most of which will go to Ukraine to buy weapons.
The leader of Germany's largest opposition party, CDU (Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands), Friedrich Merz, has criticized Chancellor Scholz for delays in supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine. He stated that he "completely" agrees with the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany Annalena Baerbock that such delays “are not excused any more”.
Humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 11 professional rescuers from the USA, Australia, and Germany expressed a desire to come to Ukraine and help SES staff on a volunteer basis. Currently, they are working to dismantle the debris in the village of Borodianka, the Kyiv region.
7. Provocations and fakes of the russian aggressors.
Along with the United States, Germany has allegedly been involved in military-biological activities in Ukraine for many years, says Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova. “The German side has closely coordinated its work in the field of biosafety with the American allies, who have established a network of at least 30 biological laboratories in Ukraine, where, among other things, dangerous research has been conducted.”
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in occupied Kherson, the russians are handing out leaflets outlining their propaganda version of the causes of the war and urging locals to conduct “explanatory work” in favor of russia.
Kherson residents are trying to persuade russia to start a war to destroy the “Kyiv regime” and do not allow the "collective West" to destroy the russian and Ukrainian peoples.
8. Political and socio-economic situation in russia, the impact of international sanctions on it.
Poland is doing everything possible to help Ukraine defeat the russian aggressor, but European sanctions against russia are still weak, they must be imposed against russian energy suppliers.
The head of the Polish government Mateusz Morawiecki stated this during his Easter address to the Polish people.
New sanctions and restrictions against russia. Italian authorities have closed access to russian ports for russian ships since April 17th.
russian president putin has signed a law requiring all russian companies to delist from foreign exchanges and place their shares on russian ones.
The negative impact of sanctions on the russian economy. The russian trucks are stuck in long queues to leave Poland, as a ban on their stay on the territory of the country according to the fifth sanctions package against russia that become legal at midnight on April 16th. The Financial Times reported this.
It is noted that the trucks are in a traffic jam of more than 40 km and wait from 3 to 10 days, the queue at the border crossing point Koroshchin with Belarus has reached 80 km.
