The grain deal expires on July 17, and it is likely that the Kremlin will threaten to not extend the deal to advance its objectives, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its report.

“The Turkish MFA also noted that Fidan and Lavrov discussed the United Nations-brokered grain export deal, while the Russian MFA predictably blamed the West for its ‘inability to take necessary steps’ to implement the agreement,” the report reads.

In addition, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Turkey’s decision to allow the release of five Ukrainian commanders involved in the defense of the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol, Donetsk region, with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on July 9.