16:51 15.06.2020

COVID-19 morbidity trends in Ukraine reach new levels

3 min read
COVID-19 morbidity trends in Ukraine reach new levels

The sharp increase in the number of cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Ukraine in recent days has reached new record levels and topped four other important indicators of the epidemic in Ukraine: average new cases over a week and two weeks, the number of cases per day, the number of patients with COVID-19 at present time and the percentage of "positive" PCR tests.

Until recently, the maximum daily average incidence over two weeks was 474 people, the number of new cases recorded on first day of quarantine easing – May 10. The figure dropped to a minimum of 382 after this. Since May 29, however, after 16 days of increasing numbers of cases, it reached 557 people.

The Health Ministry said on May 29, Ukraine also reached the local minimum of the daily average daily incidence of 375 people per week, but now this figure has grown to 621 people.

The World Health Organization (WHO) indicates that the length of time between the moment of COVID-19 infection and the onset of symptoms is usually about five to six days, but can vary from one to 14 days. In addition, in almost all countries on weekends the number of registered cases drops significantly for administrative reasons. Therefore, the world uses daily average morbidity schedules for the last one and two weeks.

Over the last 12 days, another important curve, the number of currently ill COVID-19s, has been deteriorating continuously and rapidly. As a result, on June 6, this figure in Ukraine for the first time exceeded 14,000, and, after four days, 15,000, and then 16,000 after another three days. On June 14, it reached 16,666, although it took it earlier took two weeks to grow from 13,000 to 14,000.

For 17 days, with the exception of one day, such an indicator as the ratio of the number of cases to the number of PCR tests, averaged over a week, has been growing. It also reached a local minimum of 3.8% on May 29, but now has grown to 6.6%, which corresponds to the figure at the start of quarantine easing.

The Health Ministry has said since June 13 the number of regions that do not correspond to the criteria established by the government for easing quarantine has increased to ten - the Ivano-Frankivsk region has been added, although there were only six such regions on June 10.

Kyiv city since May 31 is among them with incidence in the capital (average number of new patients over the past seven days) exceeded 12 people per 100,000 people and, as of June 14, it 15.74%.

As reported, in Ukraine, on June 1 the third stage of quarantine easing began. On June 5, indoor restaurants and domestic air transportation were allowed to open and on June 10 recreation centers were allowed to open and international air transportation resumed.

At the same time, on June 3, the Cabinet of Ministers decided that in case of violation of signs for weakening quarantine for three consecutive days, the regional commission on technogenic and environmental safety and emergency situations can cancel some anti-epidemic measures, based on the results of the assessment of the current epidemic situation in the region.

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