Ukrainian business has improved its expectations for the next 3-4 months, in particular, the share of enterprises that plan to grow increased from 39% in January to 49.1% in February, these are the results of the tenth monthly survey of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), published on Monday.

"The IER survey suggests that uncertainty remains high for business, although short-term expectations of companies are quite positive. It should be noted that expectations of an increase in production do not necessarily imply reaching the level of February 2022," Oleksandra Betliy, a leading researcher at the IER, said in an author's column on the website of Interfax-Ukraine.

According to IER estimates, the decline in real GDP in February slowed down to 26.7% from 33.8% in January.

One of the barriers that could be of increasing importance to reopening could be a shortage of skilled workers, Betliy said. So, in February, already 26% of the surveyed companies named it among the main obstacles, which was the result of both migration (internal and external) and mobilization.

The number of those who find it more difficult to find qualified workers increased from 20.9% to 27.0%, it is easier to find qualified workers for the same 2% as in January. Difficulties in finding unskilled workers were reported by 18.8% of respondents, which is 7.6 p.p. more than a month earlier.

In addition, difficulties with the transportation of raw materials or finished goods became an obstacle for 51% of respondents, which is 12 p.p. more than in January.

The main obstacles for doing business in February, which were named by 68% of survey participants, were interruptions in energy, water and heat supply, but this is 11 p.p. less than in January.

Second place among the problems is the rise in prices for raw materials: the indicator remained almost unchanged and amounted to 68%, which is 1 p.p. less than a month earlier.

For another 40% of respondents, it remains unsafe to work, this figure has not changed since January.

According to the study, only 4% of surveyed enterprises are not operating (3% in January) and only 4% of enterprises operate with less than 25% load (5% in January). The share of enterprises operating at almost full capacity (75%-99%) remained at the same level - 44% in February compared to 43% in January, with the only exception - 6% of enterprises operate at full capacity versus 4% in January and 3% in December.

"The most important factor in improving the performance of many sectors of the economy was the increase in electricity production. Since February 12, there has been no shortage of electricity in the energy system of Ukraine, although there were restrictions in some areas," Betliy stated.

According to the study, some of the enterprises that planned to reduce production decreased from 8.9% in January to 5.0% in February. From 51.7% to 45.9%, the share of enterprises planning to maintain production volumes in the coming months at the same level decreased.

The resumption of export activity slowed down: by 4 p.p. the number of enterprises that had stopped their export activities increased, but there are still few willing to start exporting goods - only 2% of respondents in February (also 1-2% in previous months).

Speaking about the macro environment, the IER leading employee noted a slowdown in inflation to 24.9% in February from 26.6% in 2022. At the same time, according to the IER forecast, the growth of consumer prices will slow down somewhat until the end of the year. At the same time, an important factor in inflation in 2023 may be the decision to raise tariffs for housing and utility services for the population, including tariffs for natural gas and electricity.