Fall in real GDP in 2020 may exceed 5% – NBU
The fall in Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 may be deeper than expected in the April forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), that is, below the 5% level, the regulator's website reports.
"The available data indicate that the fall following the results of the year is likely to be deeper than expected in the forecast published in the Inflation Report for April 2020," the report said.
It is noted that in the second quarter of 2020, the decline in real GDP is expected to deepen after a 1.3% fall in the first quarter, mainly due to quarantine measures throughout the quarter.
"The gradual easing of quarantine from mid-May, as expected, is accompanied by the restoration of economic activity and employment," the regulator added.
According to the report, the National Bank will announce an updated macro forecast during a press briefing on monetary policy on July 23, and will also publish it in the Inflation Report for July, which is scheduled for publication on July 30.
As reported, with reference to the State Statistics Service, the decline in Ukraine's GDP in January-March 2020 amounted to 1.3% compared to the same period in 2019, while according to its preliminary operational estimate, released in mid-May, this figure was 1.5%.