10:40 04.07.2013

Egyptian army will refrain from dispersing demonstrations, arresting President Morsi - Russian analyst

3 min read

Russian Federation Council international affairs committee head Mikhail Margelov believes the army in Egypt will refrain from dispersing demonstrations and arresting President Mohammed Morsi for some time.

"The situation in Egypt is developing rapidly, and it is very difficult to forecast it in detail. If Morsi does not relinquish power, the opposition will have to reply with new demonstrations. At the same time, the army's role will be limited for some time to not dispersing the demonstrations and not arresting Morsi," Margelov told Interfax on Wednesday evening.

Egypt is on the verge of a civil war, the situation is only worsening and, as a result, is stimulating "a protest temperament," he said.

Margelov insisted that the army will not allow uncontrolled shooting but said he is confused about the presence of the Building and Development Party in Egypt's political spectrum, which he described as a redesigned Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya group responsible for the assassination of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981 and the 1997 Luxor temple massacre. Margelov pointed out that members of this group were released from prison only in 2011.

The presence of 'Jihadists' has become a common consequence of the Arab Spring, he said.

"This has already become a rule: some are engaged in terror in the Sahel, and others attend parliamentary sessions, but the essence is the same," Margelov said.

In analyzing the current situation in Egypt, Margelov suggested that it very vividly demonstrates the consequences of the Arab Spring, as the government's change has not improved the life and even worsened it in some respects.

"Islamists remain Islamists everywhere, even if they are moderate. The Egyptian president was repeatedly carried away in a well-known direction last year. Perhaps he felt himself a czar, but too early. And the liberals, primarily the youth who ignited the Arab Spring, are unhappy about the Islamists with authoritarian manners coming to power," Margelov said.

"A significant part of the population in Egypt is discontented with the incumbent authorities, because the socioeconomic situation is extremely difficult, and no assistance from the outside can improve it, and the Muslim Brotherhood has not conducted any significant economic reforms," Margelov said.

At the same time, even if liberal forces had come to power a year ago, they would not have been able to normalize the situation in slightly more than a year, despite their more practical attitude toward economic issues, he said.

"Although the opposition's liberal wing has somewhat consolidated from the organizational viewpoint, both the Tamarod movement and the National Salvation Front are apparently weaker than the battle-hardened Muslim Brotherhood," Margelov said.

However, the army is an important force, and it has resorted to an ultimatum in an attempt to put an end to the street confrontation, he said.

"And the army will seek to take the situation under control. But, nevertheless, if you have weapons, you don't have to shoot them immediately but you can only point them at first," Margelov said.

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