The World Bank, in its updated Global Economic Prospects, improved its estimate of Ukraine's gross domestic product growth in 2023 to 4.8% from 2% six months earlier and predicted a slowdown in recovery to 3.2% in 2024.

"In Ukraine, the outlook remains highly uncertain. Growth is projected to be 3.2 percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025. Active hostilities are expected to continue throughout 2024, with base effects and one-off factors including agricultural harvest which should fade. A partial resolution of uncertainty in 2025 would facilitate a resumption of exports and a gradual increase in reconstruction investment," the bank said.

The bank said that in Ukraine, growth expanded by an estimated 4.8 percent in 2023, following the preceding year's steep contraction. Nonetheless, output remained about 30 percent lower in 2023 than its preinvasion level. Growth was underpinned by improved electricity access, a better harvest, and additional government spending, albeit at the cost of increasing fiscal and current account deficits. While the unraveling of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 continues to exert downward pressure on grain exports, Ukraine has successfully identified alternative routes for grain exports that have supported the sector.

As for the Europe and Central Asia region, the bank forecasts growth will remain below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting the lingering effects of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine: it will be 2.4% this year, down from 2.7% in 2023, 1.2% in 2022 and 7.1% in 2021.

"Geopolitical tensions continue to pose downside risks. The year-to-October number of political violence events and demonstrations in the region almost trebled between 2021 and 2023, concentrated especially in Russia and Ukraine. Intensifying tensions and conflicts could worsen already-heavy human and economic losses," the World Bank said.