IMF expects Ukraine's state budget deficit to grow to 17.8% of GDP in 2022, return below 10% from 2027
The deficit of the state budget of Ukraine in 2022 due to the war unleashed by Russia will increase to 17.8% of GDP from 4% of GDP in 2021, this is the forecast given by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the Fiscal Monitor released by the IMF on Wednesday, in subsequent years the deficit will also remain at a very high level: 2023 - 13.1% of GDP, 2024 - 11.9% of GDP, 2025-2026 - 10.9-10.8% of GDP.
Only in 2027, according to the IMF's estimates, the deficit will fall below 10% of GDP and amount to 9.3% of GDP.
The IMF said that this is generally about the deficit of the public finance sector, which also includes local budgets, social funds, state-owned companies, etc. In Ukraine, in recent years, it has practically coincided with the state budget deficit, but earlier it was higher due, in particular, to the deficit of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy.
The IMF said that Ukraine's primary budget deficit this year is expected to widen to 13.4% of GDP from 1% of GDP last year. Next year it will decrease to 7.3% of GDP, in 2024 to 5.8% of GDP, in 2025 to 4.9% of GDP, in 2026 to 5.2% of GDP and in 2027 to 4.1% of GDP.
