11:54 30.11.2021

Economy Ministry: level of shadow economy remains unchanged at 31% of GDP in H1 2021

3 min read
Economy Ministry: level of shadow economy remains unchanged at 31% of GDP in H1 2021

The level of the shadow economy in Ukraine in January-June 2021 remained unchanged compared to the same period in 2020 and amounted to 31% of GDP, and two out of four methods showed an increase in the level of "shadow" economy (electric and monetary), two - a decrease (the method "household expenditures-retail turnover" and the method of unprofitableness of enterprises), the Ministry of Economy reported on the website with reference to preliminary calculations.

"According to preliminary calculations of the Ministry of Economy, the level of the shadow economy in January-June 2021 compared to the corresponding period of 2020 did not change and amounted to 31% of the volume of official GDP," the department said in the analytical note on the general trends in the shadow economy for November 2021.

At the same time, two of the four methods for assessing the level of the "shadow" recorded an increase in the level of the shadow economy over the specified period: the electric method - by 2 p.p., up to 28% of GDP, the monetary method - by 2 p.p., up to 33% of GDP.

The Ministry of Economy noted the increase in the level of "shadow" by the electric method remained at the level of an increased demand for energy resources in conditions of increased activity, primarily by metallurgical and machine building enterprises.

The growth of the "shadow" according to the monetary method occurred against the background of the growth in cash turnover, the rate of expansion of which remained significant: 20.7% in annual terms in June 2021. However, there was also an objective increase in the volume of non-cash payments during the period of pandemic restrictions, the ministry notes.

"So the hypothesis remains relevant that with new models of population behavior, non-traditional cashless channels of shadowing are formed, which are not fully covered by the existing method of calculation," the authors of the analytical note pointed out.

At the same time, the method "household expenditures-retail turnover and services" showed a decrease in the "shadow" by 2 p.p., to 23%, and the method of unprofitable enterprises - by 10 p.p., to 22% of GDP, which is due to objective reasons. First, the gradual revival of business activity against the background of adaptation of enterprises to permanent restrictions and, as a consequence, the improvement of the financial results of their work in the reporting period. The second reason is the likely limitation of traditional channels of shadow activity, which has become one of the atypical manifestations of the coronavirus crisis, the ministry explains.

Speaking about the method of unprofitableness of enterprises, the Ministry of Economy notes that practically all types of economic activity have shown a tendency towards a reduction in the level of the shadow economy.

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