NBU improves forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth to 3% in 2019, 3.2% in 2020
The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its macro forecast for 2019–2021: the estimate of the real growth of the economy this year has been raised from 2.5% to 3%, and in the next year from 2.9% to 3.2%.
"Compared with the April macroeconomic forecast, the National Bank improved its forecast for the economic growth pace ... due to a stable domestic demand, better terms of trade and the expected increase in the grain harvest," the central bank said in a statement.
According to the report, the estimate of growth in 2021 remained unchanged at 3.7%, as well as the inflation forecast at 6.3% in 2019 and 5% in 2020 and 2021.
The National Bank said that in nominal terms Ukraine's GDP could grow from UAH 3.559 trillion in 2018 to UAH 4.003 trillion in 2019, UAH 4.39 trillion in 2020 and UAH 4.803 trillion in 2021.
"Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth in the coming years. The growth in private consumption will slow down, but it will be still significant under the influence of higher real incomes of households: wages, pensions, and remittances from abroad," the NBU believes.