14:17 18.09.2018

Ukrainian business forecasts exchange rate of UAH 30/$1 in 2019

2 min read

Ukrainian business projects the hryvnia exchange rate for 2019 at UAH 30/$1, according to the Business Forecast 2019 study conducted by the European Business Association (EBA).

"When planning the budgets for the next year, the business sets the value of the currency at the level of UAH 30/$1, whereas for the current year the forecasts were at the level of UAH 28/$1," EBA Executive Director Anna Derevyanko said at the Global Outlook 2018 conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Also, more than 61% of CEOs said they do not plan large-scale investments in 2019.

At the same time, 75% of CEOs expect positive development of business in Ukraine next year. Thus, 42% of business owners expect an increase in income from business development by 10-20%. Forecasts of 43% of CEO on profitability in foreign currency are up to 10%.

At the same time, 17% of respondents predict an increase in business income in the hryvnia by more than 20% and by 10-20% in U.S. dollars.

"Last year, expectations were more optimistic, when 86% of the owners hoped for positive changes, but now we are returning to the indicators of 2017," Derevyanko said.

According to her, the main tasks determined by the business for the government for next year are: effective fight against corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, judicial reform and political stability.

According to the interviewed CEOs, important factors for business development in Ukraine are also: the implementation of tax and customs reforms, progress in the implementation of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement and the strengthening of energy security and energy efficiency.

"To improve the investment climate for business, it is necessary: to launch the work of the Anti-Corruption Court, reform the judicial system and restore confidence in it, open the land market, reduce tax pressure on the payroll and detoxify the economy," Derevyanko said.

According to the results of the EBA Investment Index, also to improve the investment climate in Ukraine, it is also necessary to increase the effectiveness of the state machine, in particular, many interviewed CEOs believe that this will mean its reduction, perhaps by up to 80%.

A total of 106 top managers of EBA member companies took part in the EBA Business Forecast 2019 study. The survey contained 10 questions, and was held for the third consecutive year.

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