Ukraine's GDP in U.S. dollars will reach level of payments on GDP warrants in 2019 - Dragon Capital
The nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine, denominated in U.S. dollars, will increase to $122 billion in 2018 from $110 billion in 2017, the chief economist of Dragon Capital investment company, Olena Belan, predicts.
According to her, in 2019 Ukraine's dollar GDP could reach $130 billion, exceeding $125 billion - a threshold level, exceeding which is one of the necessary conditions for the country's paying on state warrants (GDP warrants, VRI) issued during the restructuring of eurobonds in 2015.
"If real GDP growth exceeds 3%, then the first payment could be in 2019," Belan believes.
She said that according to the terms of the issue, if GDP growth in 2019 exceeds 3%, then the first payment should be made in May 2021.
In accordance with the estimates of Dragon Capital, the ratio of Ukraine's public debt to GDP in 2017 fell from 81% to 75% after the four years of consistent growth. The company noted that the growth rate of nominal state debt also decreased slightly from 8.3% to 7.5%, and its value reached $76 billion.
"The slow growth of the national debt reflects a prudent fiscal policy, the delay in financing from the IMF and the lower amount of funds allocated to support the banking sector: UAH 71 billion ($2.7 billion) last year compared with UAH 129 billion in 2016," the expert said.
According to her, the relative stability of the national currency and the powerful growth of nominal GDP by more than 20% also contributed to the reduction of the debt to GDP ratio.