18:06 26.06.2015

Central bank's monetary policy committee suggests maintaining refinancing rate at 30%

2 min read
Central bank's monetary policy committee suggests maintaining refinancing rate at 30%

The monetary policy committee of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has suggested that the refinancing rate should remain unchanged at 30% to prop up the positive changes on the money market and ensure further stabilization.

"In case of further easing of inflationary risks, [we propose] moving to liberalization of the monetary policy in the near future," the committee said in its recommendations following meetings on June 24-25, which were posted on the NBU's website on Friday.

The committee's members noted a slight decline in inflation risks despite continuous high inflation rates. According to them, year-over-year inflation in May slowed to 58.4% from 60.9% year-over-year inflation in April.

The strengthening of the UAH/USD forex rate from April and the narrowing of its fluctuations band were reining in price dynamics, the committee said.

The improved situation on the forex market and the stabilization of expectations contributed to the return of deposits to the banking system: their value in the national currency has grown by 1.9% since the beginning of June 2015.

"Taking into account the stability of the monetary market and the low aggregate demand, the committee expects inflation to continue slowing in the coming months," the committee said.

The committee projects 48% inflation at the end of the year (the underlying inflation rate is projected at 36%), and it may slow to 12% by the end of next year.

As reported, the NBU raised the refinancing rate to 30% per annum as of March 4, 2015. The rate was 19.5% between February 6 to March 4, 2015, and it was 14% from November 13, 2014, to February 5, 2015.

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