13:02 23.01.2015

Restructuring of foreign debt could promote weakening of devaluation pressure on hryvnia, say bankers

2 min read
Restructuring of foreign debt could promote weakening of devaluation pressure on hryvnia, say bankers

The restructuring of Ukraine's foreign debt could promote a reduction of the devaluation pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate, said bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine.

"The restructuring of foreign debt will weaken the pressure on the balance of payment, and this will lead to a fall in the devaluation pressure. In addition, the restructuring will cut the risk of the country's default on sovereign bonds, and one could expect that inflow of money to the financial account of the balance of payment would be higher than it could be without restructuring," Head of the analytical department at the FUIB Yevhenia Akhtyrko said.

"There is a large likelihood that the restructuring of foreign debt will have a positive influence on the hryvnia exchange rate, as it would neutralize pressure on the currency market caused by Ukraine's debt schedule for 2015," First Deputy Board Chairman of Prominvestbank Viacheslav Yutkin said.

Director for economic analysis and strategic planning at VTB Bank Mykhailo Papanov said that the quick resolution of future payments problems on foreign debt will have a stabilizing influence on the currency market.

"Any restructuring impacts the mood of market players, as a rule, not for the better. All market players understand that the problem of future payments on foreign debt requires a non-standard decision, including the restructuring of the debt, and the sooner it is made and agreed with the IMF [International Monetary Fund] the quicker the vagueness factor will stop pressing on the market, including the currency market," he said.

An analyst from Ukrsotsbank Tanteli Ratovohery said that the publication of the government's plans to hold consultations with creditors to increase medium-term debt stability could strengthen devaluation pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate in the short-term.

"In general, the restructuring gives a signal to investors and the market that the Ukrainian government is ready to settle possible payment problems and the pressure of debt liabilities on the country's forex reserves will be partially lifted. In this case, the government's plan could launch the stabilization and the gradual strengthening of the hryvnia," he said.

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