11:03 11.12.2014

Moody's not expecting liquidity crisis in Russia even at $60 oil

2 min read
Moody's not expecting liquidity crisis in Russia even at $60 oil

Moody's Investors Service is not expecting an external liquidity crisis in Russia even if oil stays at $60 a barrel for a lengthy period.

"We do not expect an external liquidity crisis to materialize as a consequence of lower oil prices, even if they were to fall to $60 a barrel on a prolonged basis. At the same time, Russia's external buffers are finite and external liquidity will become challenging in 2016. In particular, risks to external liquidity currently relate to renewed capital flight and continued lack of access to international capital markets due to the international sanctions," Moody's said in a report.

"Oil exporters that are big spenders, most heavily reliant on oil revenue and with the lowest capacity to make necessary policy adjustments would be most negatively affected. Russia and Venezuela would fall into this category because they derive a large share of revenues from oil and have large recurring expenditure that may be politically challenging to cut. In contrast, oil producers that use oil-related revenues for capex or place it in a reserve - such as Saudi Arabia - have higher fiscal buffers and could adjust more readily to a lower oil price," Moody's said.

"Oil importers would be positively affected - although not equally so. Those that are battling high inflation and large oil subsidy bills - such as Indonesia and India - will benefit most from a lower price environment. For China, a $60 per barrel oil price would benefit private consumption and economic rebalancing, and somewhat moderate the ongoing growth slowdown," the agency said.

In November, Moody's revised its 2015 oil price forecast to $80-85 a barrel, or roughly $20 bellow what it was forecasting in May.

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