12:50 21.04.2021

Some 45% of Ukrainian respondents think buildup of Russian troops on our borders carries threat of attack

4 min read

Some 45% of Ukrainians believe that the buildup of force by the Russian Federation on the borders with Ukraine indicates the existence of a real and serious threat of an attack by Russia/the military intervention of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine, according to the data of a sociological study on the attitude of the Ukrainian society to the escalation of the conflict in Donbas, conducted by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future (UIF) with the assistance of New Image Marketing Group.

According to a study presented at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Wednesday, 27% of respondents answered that the increase in the number of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine is a bargaining on the part of Russia, and the bringing of Russian troops is possible now if Russia does not get the desired political result, 7% - that Russia is "rattling" with weapons, there is no real threat, 3% - that the Russian authorities are trying to raise their rating among Russian voters on the eve of the parliamentary elections this fall, and 5% believe that there is no threat, this is the result of information policy by the Ukrainian authorities and the media.

The overwhelming majority of respondents - 81% - heard the news that the Russian Federation is building up its forces on the borders with Ukraine, another 14% heard the news, but were not aware of the details, while only 5% did not hear this piece of news at all.

Some 50% of respondents note that the main reason for the pulling together of troops by the Russian authorities is the desire to annex most of Ukraine, with the seizure of the North Crimean Canal for the possibility of supplying water to the occupied Crimea.

Some 31% of those who took part in the study indicated that in the event of the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine, a prolonged military conflict is expected, as a result of which Russia will be defeated. Some 11% believe that there will be a fast invasion, as a result of which the Ukrainian troops will be defeated, 10% - that there will be a fast invasion, as a result of which Russian troops will be destroyed, 10% - that there will be a prolonged military conflict, as a result of which Ukraine will be defeated, and 28% of respondents do not have an unambiguous opinion on this issue.

Some 51% of the respondents stressed that in this situation (escalation/pulling up troops to the borders and threats of invasion), the best solution on the part of the Ukrainian authorities may be to strengthen its borders with a military contingent, complete militarization, mobilization, activation of the creation of territorial defense, preparation for repelling an attack. Some 48% are in favor of looking for partners and military assistance in the West, 38% are in favor of intensifying the search for diplomatic ways to resolve the conflict, initiating a new negotiation process, the purpose of which should be to increase pressure on Russia, 23% are in favor of stepping up negotiation processes directly with Russia to search for possible compromises, 2% - for accepting the conditions of Russia (complete surrender), and 2% believe that we shouldn't react in any way, there is no threat.

Some 6% of respondents share the opinion that Western sanctions against Russia are effective and sufficiently restraining the Russian government, 42% indicated that the sanctions are effective, but not sufficient to contain Russia's aggression against Ukraine, 32% - that the sanctions are ineffective, Russia does not respond to them, and they will not change their policy towards Ukraine, and 9% - that the sanctions only irritate the Russian authorities and may have an opposite effect on Russia's policy towards Ukraine.

The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine, except for the temporarily uncontrolled territories of the part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied by the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, 1,148 respondents took part in it.

The study was carried out by the method of an online survey using an interactive structured questionnaire, a link to which was sent to potential respondents from the database. The sample is multistage, combined - proportionally stratified by a region, with quota screening at the stage of respondent selection.

The sample represents the adult population of Ukraine, Internet users aged 18 and over. The statistical error with a probability of 0.95 does not exceed 3.5%.

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