Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in summer 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in its assessment of the situation at the front line as of March 15, published on Saturday.

"The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine's ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months. Russian forces are attempting to maintain the tempo of their offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from stabilizing their defensive lines. Russian forces are particularly concentrating on pushing as far west of Avdiyivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a harder-to-penetrate line in the area," it said.

Although Ukrainian forces have recently been able to slow Russian advances west of Avdiyivka, pervasive materiel shortages caused by delays in Western security assistance appear to be forcing Ukraine to prioritize limited resources to critical sectors of the front, increasing the risk of a Russian breakthrough in other less-well-provisioned sectors.

"Russian forces will continue to use the advantages provided by possessing the theater-wide initiative to dynamically reweight their offensive efforts this spring and into the summer, likely in hopes of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities," the ISW said.

The intent and design of the Russian summer 2024 offensive effort is not immediately clear and likely will not be until Russian forces launch it, but the Russian military command likely intends to capitalize on any gains it makes in the coming weeks as well as on forecasts that the Ukrainian military may be even less-well-provisioned this summer than it is now.

"Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated," the ISW said.