14:35 02.08.2013

Russian expert doubts relations with U.S. will go off track over Snowden

3 min read

The United States could cancel the Russian and American foreign and defense ministers' 2+2 meeting, and the Russian-American summit in Moscow, but will hardly make any further steps that could lead to a serious chill in bilateral relations, said experts polled by Interfax.

"Concerning the 2+2 meeting scheduled for next week, its cancellation is very likely due to the fact that emotions are still high over Snowden's being granted asylum," Foreign and Defense Policy Council head Fyodor Lukyanov said.

"Even before asylum was granted to Snowden, authorized leaks went round that Obama's visit to Moscow would be in jeopardy. White House spokesman made a relevant official statement yesterday. Once said, all of this - if Snowden's asylum is not recalled - is something Obama will find difficult to ignore," he said.

But he also said that the September summit "would be of great symbolic importance and convey the message that everything is continuing, work is well underway, we are meeting and everything is okay."

"There are no issues that need to be discussed urgently with Putin in a separate meeting in September," Lukyanov continued.

Asked what other steps, besides the cancellation of planned meetings and talks, Washington might take, the expert said, "no serious moves that would derail bilateral relations are likely to be taken, the more so since there is nothing to derail and the agenda is extremely narrow."

"Economic cooperation is so thin that there is really nothing to curtail. The cooperation currently maintained meets the Americans' interests rather than those of Russians, so it would be unwise to do anything to the detriment of this cooperation. Economic sanctions urged by Congress are unlikely, I think, since they would run counter to the rules of the World Trade Organization, which Russia was in the process of being drawn into for so long," he also said.

"But the United States may extend the Magnitsky List in reaction to the Snowden situation," Lukyanov added.

"The Magnitsky List was adopted exactly as a universal instrument of pressure," he said.

"So, I don't think any serious steps will be taken, with the exception of the Magnitsky List's extension. Relations will just remain at the current level, by all accounts," the expert said.

Lukyanov also said that Obama will not give up plans to visit St. Petersburg for the G20 summit.

"I don't think he will. Boycotting the G20 summit would be an insult not only to the hosting country, but also to the rest of the members. I think Obama will arrive in St. Petersburg in any case," he said.

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