The Business Activity Expectations Index, calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on a scale from zero to 100, rose to 50.1 points in September from 49.3 in August, the NBU reported on Monday.

"After reporting guarded expectations for two months running, businesses reported a positive economic outlook in September. The gradual rebound of output, the establishment of new supply routes, weaker growth in the prices of raw materials and energy, improved inflation and exchange rate expectations, and stable domestic demand helped improve respondents’ expectations," the regulator said.

In particular, in September, assessments of the economic situation improved slightly in industry, services and trade, respectively, from 48.8 to 50 points, from 47.3 to 47.9 points and from 52.5 to 53.3 points.

Industrial sector respondents improved their assessments of their economic performance, given the gradual recovery in production rates, new supply routes and slowing inflation.

Enterprises expect a further increase in prices for their own products (from 58.8 points in August to 61.4 points in September) against the backdrop of lower expectations of rising prices for raw materials (from 32.3 points to 30.9 points).

According to the central bank, respondents maintained positive expectations regarding the volume of manufactured products and new orders for them, as well as inventories of raw materials.

It is indicated that respondents expect new export orders for products at the level of the previous month. At the same time, negative estimates regarding the volume of work in progress somewhat weakened, while estimates regarding the balances of finished products worsened.

"Trading companies have remained the most upbeat among the sectors – they have reported positive performance expectations for seven months in a row amid stable consumer sentiment, an ample supply of goods, and decelerating inflation. The sector’s index was 53.3 in September, up from 52.5 in August," the NBU said.

This survey was carried out from September 4 through September 22, 2023. A total of 502 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 45.4% are industrial companies, 28.9% services companies, 20.7% trading companies, and 5.0% construction companies; 32.3% of the respondents are large companies, 29.3% medium companies, and 38.4% small companies.

Out of the surveyed companies, 31.9% are both exporters and importers, 9.6% are exporters only, 15.5% are importers only, and 43% are neither exporters nor importers.