Attacks on the power system could worsen the dynamics of Ukraine's gross domestic product for 2023 by 3-9 percentage points (p.p.), so the forecast depends on the intensity of shelling and how allies are ready to provide air defense systems, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said.

"For next year, we have already worsened the forecast from 4.6% to 3.2%. But everything will depend on the security situation. Attacks on the power system can worsen the forecast by another 3-9 percentage points. That is, next year we can get a fall GDP instead of the expected growth," he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.

The prime minister recalled that at the beginning of the war, the forecasts of most experts were pessimistic and gave a fall in the Ukrainian economy by 45% or more, but thanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, many territories have already been liberated, so that first forecast did not come true.

"Following the results of [the first] nine months, GDP fell by 30%. By the end of the year, we expected a fall of 32%. Now, after nine waves [of hits on infrastructure], GDP may fall in 2022 to 35%, but no more," Shmyhal said.

As reported, early December, First Deputy Minister of Economy Denys Kudin, Russian attacks on energy infrastructure increased the rate of decline in the Ukrainian economy in November this year compared to November last, approximately to 41% compared to 39% in October and 30.8% in third quarter.

At a briefing on December 8, NBU management also said that Russian energy terror worsened their estimate of a 31.5% decline in GDP this year, but did not specify by how much.

In addition, the National Bank said that next year, even under its baseline, relatively optimistic scenario (designed for effective protection of energy facilities and prompt recovery of the system), GDP growth will be very sluggish and much lower than the 4% that we assumed in the October forecast.