Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 0.5% in February 2025 compared to February 2024, down from the 1.3% growth recorded in January, according to the Monthly Economic Monitoring report by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).

"The slowdown was caused by a decline in several industries due to Russian attacks and increased business uncertainty, which offset the recovery seen in other sectors of the economy. In January, GDP growth was recorded at 1.3%, based on updated data and a slightly refined calculation methodology," the institute explained.

According to the IER press service, real gross value added (GVA) in the transport sector declined by 4.5% in February due to attacks on port infrastructure, compared to a roughly 1% drop in January caused by the absence of gas transit. Growth in trade also slowed to 3.5% year-on-year.

The report noted that Russian strikes on gas extraction and distribution infrastructure in Kharkiv and Poltava regions – including both Naftogaz facilities and private companies – worsened conditions in the extractive industry. The sector had already seen production declines due to the temporary occupation of several coal mines in Donetsk region. As a result, real GVA in the industry shrank by over 5% year-on-year.

In the manufacturing sector, GDP growth was constrained by Russian attacks on industrial facilities and infrastructure, as well as planned power outages. As a result, the sector posted a modest 2.5% growth in February compared to February 2024.

"Real GVA in agriculture is estimated to have declined by 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting a downturn in livestock production. Early-year agricultural data does not yet include crop farming performance," said Vitaliy Kravchuk, a senior researcher at IER.

Additionally, in February, Ukraine increased electricity imports by nearly 30% month-on-month to 244,000 MWh, with the largest supplies coming from Hungary (35%) and Slovakia (30%). Compared to February 2024, electricity imports surged 2.9 times.

Rail freight volumes in February totaled 12.3 million tonnes, down 12% from January and 16% from February 2024. Of this, 4.2 million tonnes were transported to ports, while 2 million tonnes were directed to the western border. The largest share of transported goods consisted of ore (43%), grain (37%), and ferrous metals (6%).

On March 18, First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko reported that GDP growth for January-February 2025 reached 1.1%.

Earlier, on February 28, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's 2025 economic growth, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 2-3%. Similarly, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised its forecast downward from 4.7% to 3.5%, the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%, and the National Bank of Ukraine from 4.1% to 3.6%. However, the 2025 state budget is based on a projected GDP growth rate of 2.7%.