Head of Raiffeisen Bank Aval says NBU refinancing rate could fall by 1-1.5 p.p.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) may reduce the refinancing rate by another 1-1.5 percentage points within 12 months, chairman of the board of Raiffeisen Bank Aval (Kyiv) Oleksandr Pysaruk predicts.
"The NBU rate, this is my personal opinion, still has a little potential for reduction. I estimate it at about 1-1.5 percentage points within 12 months. If the current dynamics of the crisis and financial stability maintained, I see such a potential," he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine before the resignation of NBU Governor Yakiv Smolii.
According to Pysaruk, it is impossible to achieve a zero or negative refinancing rate in Ukraine.
He added that accelerating inflation to reach fast economic growth could create additional risks for the country.
"To accelerate inflation by issuing money is quite simple, but subsequently it is difficult to reduce it ... Emission of hryvnia in excessive amounts to cover the budget deficit or lend to infrastructure projects will inevitably lead to a sharp acceleration of inflation and the devaluation of the national currency," the banker added.
He explained that the inflation-devaluation spiral poses risks to financial stability and, ultimately, such an attempt to accelerate inflation is much more expensive for the economy and citizens, especially the poorest people.
"The NBU is absolutely right that maintaining a relatively low and stable inflation creates significantly more favorable conditions for economic growth in the medium and long term," he added.