IMF includes UAH 30/$1 average exchange rate in forecasts for Ukraine for 2020
The nominal gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2020 will decline to UAH 3.908 trillion, or to $130.3 billion, which brings to the average annual rate of UAH 30/$1.
The forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is contained in its materials published in connection with the approval of a new Stand-By Arrangement to Ukraine.
The IMF recalled that in 2019 Ukraine's GDP grew to UAH 3.975 trillion from UAH 3.561 trillion in 2018, and in U.S. dollars to $154.7 billion from $130.9 billion, while the average annual hryvnia exchange rate strengthened to UAH 25.70/$1 from UAH 27.20/$1.
According to the IMF's estimates, next year the average annual hryvnia exchange rate will strengthen to UAH 28.90/$1, and in 2022 - to UAH 28.60/$1, after which it will be stable at UAH 28.70/$1 for three years.
In these materials, the IMF also forecast Ukraine's real GDP for 2023–2025. According to its experts, after the decline this year by 8.2% and the recovery in 2021 by 1.1% and in 2022 by 3%, in 2023 the growth of the Ukrainian economy will accelerate to 3.4%, in 2024 – to 3.8%, in 2025 – to 4%.
Inflation after the jump from 4.1% last year to 7.7% this year will decrease to 5.9% next year, to 5.2% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023, then it will stabilize at 5%.
Since the beginning of this year, according to the National Bank, the average hryvnia exchange rate has been about UAH 25.90/$1.